The show of unity deployed by Europe since the weekend regarding Ukraine has, so far, yielded few tangible results. Russian President Vladimir Putin continues to ignore the European ultimatum for a 30-day ceasefire. And ahead of the uncertain meeting in Istanbul this Thursday, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has challenged the Russian leader to a face-to-face meeting, the only one expected, in principle, is with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, according to statements from Donald Trump on Tuesday.
Europe, without a seat at the negotiating table, fears that a lack of results from the meeting will not generate a firm response from Washington to add pressure on Moscow.
The continent’s leaders are worried about the intense uncertainty surrounding a meeting where Europe’s future is at stake, but where everything could go from relatively well to disastrously, as some European governments warn. In Brussels and most capitals, fingers are crossed in the face of Zelenskiy’s challenge to Putin, although there is little hope that an increasingly certain Russian rebuff will finally provoke a forceful response from Washington. And without the U.S., Europe, despite remaining willing to increase pressure on Russia by any means, knows it will achieve little traction on the negotiating lines.
Officially, Europe supports a possible meeting between the two leaders of the warring countries. “We would welcome President Putin meeting with Zelenskiy for the first time in many years, certainly since the war began, and for direct dialogue to take place this Thursday,” a European Commission spokesperson said regarding the Turkish meeting.
“The EU, both at the European level and through representatives of various governments within the EU, has worked closely with Presidents Zelenskiy and Trump to ensure there is pressure for a ceasefire and that these types of talks take place,” the spokesperson added, refuting the notion that Europe has, once again, been sidelined. In this regard, he alluded to Rubio’s collective call with several European counterparts on Monday night to “discuss the way forward to achieve a ceasefire and peace in Ukraine.”
The discussion was attended by the foreign ministers of Germany, Johann Wadephul, Poland, Radoslaw Sikorski, the United Kingdom, David Lammy, and Ukraine, Andrii Sybiha, as well as the head of European diplomacy, Kaja Kallas. “We coordinated further peace efforts in the coming days, as well as sanctions and other steps that can be taken if Russia continues to reject the ceasefire and peace efforts,” Sybiha revealed Tuesday.
Swedish Finance Minister Elisabeth Svantesson has also tried to downplay the absence of European representatives at the negotiating table in Istanbul. The important thing, she said at a press conference in Brussels where she presented a report on the poor state of the Russian economy, is “to get a good result in the end.“ ”European leaders, of course, have been in contact with Ukraine, the Russians, and the Americans,” she asserted. “There is coordinated action,” she insisted, and from her point of view, the important thing is achieving peace, not who achieves it.
Despite public statements, behind closed doors, many capitals are concerned about the enormous uncertainty surrounding a meeting with many unanswered questions: the Russian plan is unknown, Trump’s reaction remains to be seen, and there is no indication whether or not Putin will ultimately appear in Istanbul or snub Zelenskiy, in addition to all the other interferences that could arise. It’s a completely unpredictable scenario, they warn.
Another concern is Trump’s apparent intention — given the Republican openly despises the EU — to secure a peace deal at any price. Whatever it takes, even if it is a bad deal for Ukraine and thus for Europe, just to be able to say that he has managed to wrest a deal for his domestic audience, according to various European sources.
“This meeting that might happen on Thursday is really the most encouraging thing we’ve had in the last three years of this endless, really unnecessary war,” said the U.S. ambassador to NATO, Matthew G. Whitaker, in a video conference with journalists ahead of the informal summit of NATO foreign ministers, which will also be held in Turkey, although in Antalya, on the same day as the proposed Russian-Ukrainian meeting.
“We have to get to the table to negotiate an end to this war […] And if anybody can get a peace deal done, it’s President Trump. I think we are as close as we’ve ever been to the war ending and the fighting to stop. And I think that’s a great step. But again, we have to see how this plays out on Thursday and just take it a step at a time. It’s hard to predict what happens after that,” he acknowledged.
That “after” is already intensely preoccupying Europe, which has accelerated the work on sanctions against Russia, practically its only way of putting pressure on Moscow. The Twenty-Seven are preparing to approve a 17th package of sanctions next Tuesday, during the Foreign Affairs Council focused on defense, which identifies, among others, several entities based in China and Dubai that support the Russian war machine or provide ships to the so-called ghost fleet with which Moscow evades the embargo on oil and other exports.
In recent preparatory meetings, the European Commission has made some changes to broaden the scope of sanctions, adding nearly 200 vessels identified as part of the ghost fleet, according to diplomatic sources. While acknowledging that there is little room left in terms of strict sanctions to further tighten the screws on Russia, the Commission is already working on a new package in response to demands from various countries to apply increasing pressure on Moscow.
If Russia doesn’t accept Ukraine’s offer of dialogue, “there will be consequences,” German Foreign Minister Wadephul warned. “We will not stand idly by and watch Russia continue this war.”
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Europe fears US inaction if Russia-Ukraine meeting in Istanbul fails – EL PAÍS English
