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Gold is hitting records in more ways than one.
In nominal terms, the yellow metal set multiple new all-time highs this week, exceeding $3,300 an ounce for the first time ever on Wednesday. And on an inflation-adjusted basis, gold also notched a new record price, surpassing the longstanding record set in 1980.
There could be further gains in the coming months, if analyst expectations come to fruition. Goldman Sachs sees gold topping out at $3,700 by the end of this year and $4,000 an ounce by mid-2026.
Gold miners, I’m happy to report, also appear to be back in favor. The IBD 50, Investor’s Business Daily’s flagship screen of growth stocks, now includes about a dozen gold mining names. Companies that were just added to the list include DRDGold, Eldorado Gold, Gold Fields, Randgold Resources, Osisko Gold Royalties, Royal Gold, Triple Flag Precious Metals and Wheaton Precious Metals.
We’re proud to hold shares in 11 of these companies across one or more of our gold equity or resource funds, as of March 31. Below is a comprehensive list.
This gold rally is classic Fear Trade. It comes as investor sentiment has collapsed to its lowest level in three decades, according to April’s BofA Global Fund Manager Survey. Eighty-two percent of participants said they believe the global economy will shrink, marking the most pessimistic reading in the survey’s history.
The value of the U.S. dollar, when measured against a basket of world currencies, has sunk to a three-year low as traders await more details on the fallout from President Donald Trump’s trade policies. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index is down 8% so far in 2025, making this the worst start to a year in the index’s four-decade history, according to the Wall Street Journal.
Granted, a weaker greenback has its advantages: It makes the price of goods being exported out of the U.S. more affordable to foreign buyers, helping exporters.
My concern is the reason why the dollar is on the decline. Foreign central banks have been dumping U.S. debt for a while, but the selling pressure of longer-dated bonds has increased in recent months. In the four months through February, overseas institutions sold a combined net of approximately $90 billion.
Despite the rally, retail investors are still sorely underexposed. Gold-backed ETF assets currently represent less than 2% of all ETF assets, down from approximately 8% in 2011. Investment in gold ETFs has significantly picked up since February, but holdings are still off by about 19% from their highs in October 2020.
The market share for gold mining ETFs is even lower, representing less than 0.5% of total equity ETFs.
That’s a shame because gold stocks have been among the best bets of the year so far. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, or GDM, has advanced more than 53% through Thursday’s close, far outperforming the S&P 500, which has lost close to 10% over the same period.
Believe it or not, the second-best-performing S&P 500 stock so far this year is Newmont, the world’s largest gold mining company. Newmont is up a little over 50% through April 16, following CVS Health, up nearly 53%.
Analysts have rosy expectations for Newmont’s year ahead. Those polled by FactSet say they project profits to rise 13% to $3.92 per share this year, followed by an 8% rise to $4.23 per share next year.
This rally isn’t limited to U.S.-based gold stocks. South African producers, as measured by the rand-priced FTSE/JSE Precious Metals and Mining Index, hit a new record high as the price of gold has exploded to the upside, crossing above R60,000 per ounce this month for the first time ever.
Many American depository receipts (ADRs) of South African producers have done exceptionally well so far in 2025, with Sibanye Stillwater up about 50%, AngloGold Ashanti and DRDGold both up 93% to 94%, and Harmony Gold up a remarkable 113%.
Just as investors’ portfolios are underexposed to the yellow metal, gold mining stocks look incredibly undervalued compared to the market.
The chart below shows the ratio between the GDM and the S&P 500. You can see that, relative to the S&P, gold stocks have traded in a range-bound pattern going back about 10 years.
So how do mining stocks break out of this pattern? Either gold equities continue to trade up, or the S&P 500 continues to fall (or a combination of the two).
In any case, this could be a good buying opportunity. As always, I recommend a 10% weighting, with 5% in physical gold (bars, coins, jewelry) and the other 5% in high-quality gold stocks.
Interested to learn what gold-focused funds we offer at U.S. Global Investors? Simply email “GOLD” to info@usfunds.com.
This week gold futures closed at $3,329.10, up $84.50 per ounce, or 2.60%. Gold stocks, as measured by the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index, ended the week higher by 3.75%. The S&P/TSX Venture Index came in up 3.65%. The U.S. Trade-Weighted Dollar fell 0.66%.
U.S. Global Investors, Inc. is an investment adviser registered with the Securities and Exchange Commission (“SEC”). This does not mean that we are sponsored, recommended, or approved by the SEC, or that our abilities or qualifications in any respect have been passed upon by the SEC or any officer of the SEC.
This commentary should not be considered a solicitation or offering of any investment product. Certain materials in this commentary may contain dated information. The information provided was current at the time of publication. Some links above may be directed to third-party websites. U.S. Global Investors does not endorse all information supplied by these websites and is not responsible for their content. All opinions expressed and data provided are subject to change without notice. Some of these opinions may not be appropriate to every investor.
Holdings may change daily. Holdings are reported as of the most recent quarter-end. The following securities mentioned in the article were held by one or more accounts managed by U.S. Global Investors as of (03/31/2025):
United Airlines
Boeing
Air China
Embraer
Frontier Group Holdings
LVMH
Hermes
Goldman Sachs
Moncler Group
Alamos Gold Inc.
Triple Flag Precious Metals Co.
Royal Gold Inc.
DRDGold Ltd.
Eldorado Gold Corp.
Osisko Gold Royalties Ltd.
Newmont Corp.
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp.
Gold Fields Ltd.
Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd.
Harmony Gold Mining Co. Ltd.
AngloGold Ashanti Plc
BHP Group Inc.
Exxon Mobil Corp.
Allied Gold Corp.
Kinross Gold Inc.
IAMGOLD Corp.
Fortuna Mining Corp.
B2Gold Corp.
*The above-mentioned indices are not total returns. These returns reflect simple appreciation only and do not reflect dividend reinvestment.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is a price-weighted average of 30 blue chip stocks that are generally leaders in their industry. The S&P 500 Stock Index is a widely recognized capitalization-weighted index of 500 common stock prices in U.S. companies. The Nasdaq Composite Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all Nasdaq National Market and SmallCap stocks. The Russell 2000 Index® is a U.S. equity index measuring the performance of the 2,000 smallest companies in the Russell 3000®, a widely recognized small-cap index.
The Hang Seng Composite Index is a market capitalization-weighted index that comprises the top 200 companies listed on Stock Exchange of Hong Kong, based on average market cap for the 12 months. The Taiwan Stock Exchange Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all listed common shares traded on the Taiwan Stock Exchange. The Korea Stock Price Index is a capitalization-weighted index of all common shares and preferred shares on the Korean Stock Exchanges.
The Philadelphia Stock Exchange Gold and Silver Index (XAU) is a capitalization-weighted index that includes the leading companies involved in the mining of gold and silver. The U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar Index provides a general indication of the international value of the U.S. dollar. The S&P/TSX Canadian Gold Capped Sector Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index, whose equity weights are capped 25 percent and index constituents are derived from a subset stock pool of S&P/TSX Composite Index stocks. The NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index is a modified market capitalization weighted index comprised of publicly traded companies involved primarily in the mining for gold and silver. The S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index is a broad market indicator for the Canadian venture capital market. The index is market capitalization weighted and, at its inception, included 531 companies. A quarterly revision process is used to remove companies that comprise less than 0.05% of the weight of the index, and add companies whose weight, when included, will be greater than 0.05% of the index.
The S&P 500 Energy Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the energy sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the material sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Financials Index is a capitalization-weighted index. The index was developed with a base level of 10 for the 1941-43 base period. The S&P 500 Industrials Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the industrial sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Discretionary Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer discretionary sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Information Technology Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the information technology sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Consumer Staples Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the consumer staples sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Utilities Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the utilities sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Healthcare Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the healthcare sector as a subset of the S&P 500. The S&P 500 Telecom Index is a Materials Index is a capitalization-weighted index that tracks the companies in the telecom sector as a subset of the S&P 500.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is one of the most widely recognized price measures for tracking the price of a market basket of goods and services purchased by individuals. The weights of components are based on consumer spending patterns. The Purchasing Manager’s Index is an indicator of the economic health of the manufacturing sector. The PMI index is based on five major indicators: new orders, inventory levels, production, supplier deliveries and the employment environment. Gross domestic product (GDP) is the monetary value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period, though GDP is usually calculated on an annual basis. It includes all private and public consumption, government outlays, investments and exports less imports that occur within a defined territory.
The S&P Global Luxury Index is comprised of 80 of the largest publicly traded companies engaged in the production or distribution of luxury goods or the provision of luxury services that meet specific investibility requirements.
The ZEW Economic Sentiment Index is a survey-based indicator reflecting the economic outlook of financial analysts and experts.
The FTSE/JSE Precious Metals & Mining Index is a South African stock market index that tracks the performance of companies primarily involved in precious metals and mining. The ICE U.S. Dollar Index (USDX) futures contract is a leading benchmark for the international value of the US dollar and the world’s most widely-recognized traded currency index. The IBD 50 is a weekly, computer-generated stock index published by Investor’s Business Daily (IBD) that identifies the top 50 growth stocks based on fundamental and technical indicators.
April 14, 2025
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March 31, 2025
NEWSLETTER
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Bond funds are subject to interest-rate risk; their value declines as interest rates rise. Tax-exempt income is federal income tax free. A portion of this income may be subject to state and local income taxes, and if applicable, may subject certain investors to the Alternative Minimum Tax as well. The Near-Term Tax Free Fund may invest up to 20% of its assets in securities that pay taxable interest. Income or fund distributions attributable to capital gains are usually subject to both state and federal income taxes. The tax free funds may be exposed to risks related to a concentration of investments in a particular state or geographic area. These investments present risks resulting from changes in economic conditions of the region or issuer. Gold, precious metals, and precious minerals funds may be susceptible to adverse economic, political or regulatory developments due to concentrating in a single theme. The prices of gold, precious metals, and precious minerals are subject to substantial price fluctuations over short periods of time and may be affected by unpredicted international monetary and political policies. We suggest investing no more than 5% to 10% of your portfolio in these sectors. Foreign and emerging market investing involves special risks such as currency fluctuation and less public disclosure, as well as economic and political risk. By investing in a specific geographic region, a regional fund’s returns and share price may be more volatile than those of a less concentrated portfolio. The Emerging Europe Fund invests more than 25% of its investments in companies principally engaged in the oil & gas or banking industries. The risk of concentrating investments in this group of industries will make the fund more susceptible to risk in these industries than funds which do not concentrate their investments in an industry and may make the fund’s performance more volatile. Because the Global Resources Fund concentrates its investments in a specific industry, the fund may be subject to greater risks and fluctuations than a portfolio representing a broader range of industries. Stock markets can be volatile and share prices can fluctuate in response to sector-related and other risks as described in the fund prospectus.
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