The Australian Dollar (AUD) experiences volatility against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, driven by traders’ caution over fresh tariff tensions. However, the AUD/USD pair faced challenges following the introduction of new tariff actions by US President Donald Trump. President Trump announced on Thursday a 35% tariff rate for goods imported from Canada, effective August 1. He further stated that the European Union (EU) would receive a letter notifying them of new tariff rates “today or tomorrow.”
The AUD receives support after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprisingly decided to maintain the Official Cash Rate (OCR) at 3.85% earlier this week. RBA Governor Michele Bullock stated that inflation risks persist, driven by the elevated unit labor costs and weak productivity, which could push inflation above forecasts. Moreover, RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser mentioned that the global economy is facing uncertainty. Hauser also stated that tariff effects on the global economy are profound and are likely to dampen growth.
AUD/USD is trading around 0.6590 on Friday. The daily chart’s technical analysis indicated a persistent bullish sentiment as the pair remains within the ascending channel pattern. The 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned above the 50 mark, strengthening the bullish bias. Additionally, the pair has moved slightly above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), indicating that short-term price momentum is strengthening.
On the upside, the AUD/USD pair has reached its fresh eight-month high of 0.6595 on Friday. A break above this level could strengthen the bullish bias and open the doors for the pair to explore the region around the upper boundary of the ascending channel around 0.6680.
The AUD/USD pair may test its initial support at the nine-day EMA of 0.6555. A successful breach below this level would weaken the market sentiment and put downward pressure on the pair to test the ascending channel’s lower boundary around 0.6520, followed by the 50-day EMA at 0.6484.
The table below shows the percentage change of Australian Dollar (AUD) against listed major currencies today. Australian Dollar was the strongest against the Japanese Yen.
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Australian Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent AUD (base)/USD (quote).
One of the most significant factors for the Australian Dollar (AUD) is the level of interest rates set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA). Because Australia is a resource-rich country another key driver is the price of its biggest export, Iron Ore. The health of the Chinese economy, its largest trading partner, is a factor, as well as inflation in Australia, its growth rate and Trade Balance. Market sentiment – whether investors are taking on more risky assets (risk-on) or seeking safe-havens (risk-off) – is also a factor, with risk-on positive for AUD.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) influences the Australian Dollar (AUD) by setting the level of interest rates that Australian banks can lend to each other. This influences the level of interest rates in the economy as a whole. The main goal of the RBA is to maintain a stable inflation rate of 2-3% by adjusting interest rates up or down. Relatively high interest rates compared to other major central banks support the AUD, and the opposite for relatively low. The RBA can also use quantitative easing and tightening to influence credit conditions, with the former AUD-negative and the latter AUD-positive.
China is Australia’s largest trading partner so the health of the Chinese economy is a major influence on the value of the Australian Dollar (AUD). When the Chinese economy is doing well it purchases more raw materials, goods and services from Australia, lifting demand for the AUD, and pushing up its value. The opposite is the case when the Chinese economy is not growing as fast as expected. Positive or negative surprises in Chinese growth data, therefore, often have a direct impact on the Australian Dollar and its pairs.
Iron Ore is Australia’s largest export, accounting for $118 billion a year according to data from 2021, with China as its primary destination. The price of Iron Ore, therefore, can be a driver of the Australian Dollar. Generally, if the price of Iron Ore rises, AUD also goes up, as aggregate demand for the currency increases. The opposite is the case if the price of Iron Ore falls. Higher Iron Ore prices also tend to result in a greater likelihood of a positive Trade Balance for Australia, which is also positive of the AUD.
The Trade Balance, which is the difference between what a country earns from its exports versus what it pays for its imports, is another factor that can influence the value of the Australian Dollar. If Australia produces highly sought after exports, then its currency will gain in value purely from the surplus demand created from foreign buyers seeking to purchase its exports versus what it spends to purchase imports. Therefore, a positive net Trade Balance strengthens the AUD, with the opposite effect if the Trade Balance is negative.
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Dollar attracts safe haven flows amid trade anxiety. US inflation data could shake July Fed cut probability. UK, Canadian and Japanese CPI numbers also on tap. Weak Chinese growth may increase calls for more stimulus.
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