President Donald Trump has set the stage to impose strict new conditions on Russian President Vladmir Putin to end the war in Ukraine.
After his April 26 meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy at St. Peter’s Basilica in Vatican City, Trump called out Putin for continuing to kill Ukrainian civilians with missiles and declared that he would change his approach to the Russian leader.
On April 30, the United States and Ukraine signed an agreement to create a joint fund to invest in Ukraine’s development of critical minerals and natural resources. The agreement, a Trump foreign policy priority, is a win-win. It will help the United States compete with China in the minerals sector. It also sends a signal to Russia that Trump is aligned with Ukraine and making a long-term commitment to the nation’s sovereignty, security, prosperity and accession to the European Union.
To seize this momentum to end the war in Ukraine, Trump should pivot to a new strategy to engage Russia. As the president said on April 26, Putin is “just tapping (him) along,” finessing the negotiating process to seize more territory and gain more concessions and time. The new strategy should reorder the sequence of objectives, maximize U.S. leverage and build confidence among all the parties in conflict.
Moscow is delaying and confusing the diplomatic process by insisting that Ukraine accept Russia’s maximalist demands before entering a ceasefire. These include recognizing that Russia holds Crimea and four partially occupied regions in eastern Ukraine. Russia also seeks to demilitarize Ukraine and limit the nation’s capacity to defend itself through external military support from allies.
Trump should reverse this sequence and call for an unconditional ceasefire as the foundation for negotiating a broader peace agreement.
The ceasefire should be comprehensive, including a ban on the use of any military force in the airspace, at sea and on land. Only when military hostilities have stopped will it be possible for Ukraine and Russia to agree on fundamental principles for a durable peace.
Trump’s pivot should include a decisive demonstration of political will. While the president is reluctant to dramatically increase U.S. military assistance, he is inclined to apply economic power. Accordingly, Trump should maximize the leverage of Western sanctions to obtain a ceasefire and accelerate diplomacy.
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Moscow is gaming negotiations to obtain a U.S. commitment to end all sanctions. Trump should make clear that an end to sanctions is off the table for now.
Instead, Trump should impose more sanctions with strong bipartisan political support. Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-South Carolina, and 60 senators are ready to pass a bill to support placing 500% tariffs on any country that purchases Russian oil, gas, uranium or other products.
Additional steps could be taken in coordination with the European Union to tighten enforcement of existing sanctions on Russia’s trade in oil and gas and other sectors.
At the same time, Trump could test Russia’s incentive to make concessions in exchange for sanctions relief in specific industries.
Russia’s distress over the viability of civil aviation provides a possible opening. From the beginning of negotiations over Ukraine, Moscow has asked the Trump administration for permission to resume direct commercial air flights to the United States. Putin must grasp that the United States would hardly grant access to Russian commercial flights until Ukraine’s airspace is safe and Ukraine could also resume commercial air traffic both domestically and internationally.
In response to Putin’s request, which his envoy Kirill Dmitriev reiterated in his April 3 visit to the White House, Trump should demand that Russia begin a complete ceasefire, including any Russian air borne attacks on Ukrainian territory − not just those targeting energy infrastructure but all targets including, most importantly, civilians.
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Only when Ukrainian air space is determined to be safe for civilian travel would the United States consider allowing Russia to resume direct commercial air flights to the United States.
Moscow has stated that as part of a ceasefire at sea, it would like sanctions lifted on the banks that facilitate payments for Russian agriculture exports. Trump should consider this step as part of a comprehensive and verifiable ceasefire in the Black Sea that prevents Russia from redeploying its fleet and enables Ukraine to rapidly increase exports of all goods and decrease shipping, insurance and other associated costs.
By Trump’s own reckoning, after 100 days of back and forth with Putin, he has arrived at a fork in the road with the Russian leader. The president is clear about Putin’s intentions and methods. He could allow the Russian leader to continue to tap him along at the negotiating table. He could, as he has threatened, walk away from negotiations with Russia all together. This road could lead to a prolonged and wider war in Europe.
Alternatively, Trump could pivot his strategy and insist on an unconditional and comprehensive ceasefire to break the historical impasse and end the war in Ukraine. The pivot would position Trump to press Russia for an acceptable formula that protects Ukraine’s territorial and economic sovereignty. He could secure European Union commitments for critical aspects of a peace agreement such as military assistance and security guarantees.
Building on this foundation, Trump could demand Russian actions to renounce and remove the threat of future military aggression against Ukraine.
When negotiating with Russia, nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. Every Ukrainian concession – such as no NATO membership or no return of captured territory – should be offset by an equivalent Russian concession. If a peace agreement is reached, Western sanctions would be lifted only gradually and commensurate with Russian adherence to the terms and confidence-building measures.
Wesley Clark is a retired four-star general who served as commander of U.S. Southern Command and then as commander of U.S. European Command/Supreme Allied Commander, Europe. Matthew Murray is a former deputy assistant secretary of Commerce for Europe, the Middle East and Africa.
Gen. Wesley Clark: Trump needs to push Putin hard to end war in Ukraine – now – USA Today
