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By Adedapo Adesanya
Oil prices fell on Friday as markets watched a possible deal fall out following an Oval Office argument between the US and Ukrainian presidents.
Brent crude settled at $73.18 a barrel after it went down by 86 cents or 1.16 per cent and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures finished at $69.76 a barrel after losing 59 cents or 0.84 per cent.
An on-camera argument in the Oval Office broke out on Friday night between US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy over a possible cease-fire agreement in the Russia-Ukraine war.
In the interview monitored by Business Post, President Trump and Vice President JD Vance laid into Mr Zelenskiy, leading to a shouting match with the US leaders accusing the Ukrainian leader of being disrespectful.
President Trump threatened to withdraw support for Ukraine and Zelenskiy left the White House without signing an agreement for joint development by the two countries of Ukraine’s mineral resources.
Meanwhile, the market is also bracing for the US’ new tariffs and Iraq’s decision to resume oil exports from the Kurdistan region.
The American President said his proposed 25 per cent tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods will take effect on March 4, along with an extra 10 per cent duty on Chinese imports.
A tariff war could slow global growth, spark inflation and, in turn, suppress crude demand.
Iraq, the second largest oil producer in the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) after Saudi Arabia, is set to announce the resumption of oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region through the Iraq-Turkey pipeline, according to an Iraqi oil ministry statement.
The country’s oil ministry said it will export 185,000 barrels per day through state oil marketer SOMO, and that quantity will gradually increase.
Despite the expected announcement, eight international oil firms operating in the Kurdistan region said they would not be resuming exports on Friday as there was no clarity on commercial agreements and guarantees of payment for past and future exports.
The resumption of exports raises questions about how Iraq will comply with its OPEC+ obligations, having already regularly produced above its quota and with the alliance delaying return of voluntary cuts in April, the increase in Iraq will lead to overproduction.
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Adedapo Adesanya is a journalist, polymath, and connoisseur of everything art. When he is not writing, he has his nose buried in one of the many books or articles he has bookmarked or simply listening to good music with a bottle of beer or wine. He supports the greatest club in the world, Manchester United F.C.
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The NASD Over-the-Counter (OTC) Securities Exchange ended the last trading session of this week with a 0.20 per cent gain on Friday, July 4.
The alternative stock market was lifted by the gains recorded by the trio of FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc, Geo-Fluids Plc, and Food Concepts Plc.
Data showed that the market capitalisation of the bourse rose by N3.91 billion yesterday to N1.990 trillion from N1.986 trillion, and the NASD Unlisted Security Index (NSI) increased by 6.64 points to settle at 3,398.64 points, in contrast to the 3,392.00 points it ended on Thursday.
FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc chalked up 41 Kobo to close at N60.89 per unit versus the preceding day’s N60.48 per unit, Geo-Fluids Plc appreciated by 31 Kobo toN4.26 per share from N3.95 per share, and Food Concepts Plc grew by 8 Kobo to sell at N2.65 per unit compared with the previous day’s N2.57 per unit.
On the flip side, the price of NASD Plc was down by 72 Kobo on Friday to quote at N25.72 per share compared with the preceding day’s value of N25.00 per share.
During the session, there was a 48.7 per cent rise in the volume of transactions to 4632,624 units from the 425,567 units traded a day earlier, but the value of trades went down by 21.1 per cent to N18.1 million from N22.9 million, and the number of deals declined by 26.5 per cent to 25 deals from 34 deals.
Okitipupa Plc maintained its spot as the most traded stock by value on a year-to-date basis with 153.8 million units sold for N4.9 billion, followed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units worth N4.2 billion, and FrieslandCampina Wamco Nigeria Plc with 41.6 million units valued at N1.7 billion.
Also, Impresit Bakolori Plc remained the most active stock by volume on a year-to-date basis with 536.9 million units worth N524.8 million, trailed by Air Liquide Plc with 507.2 million units valued at N4.2 billion, and Geo-Fluids Plc with 268.5 million units sold for N475.9 million.
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The Naira’s recent positive run ended on Friday after it slipped against the US Dollar in the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM) by 0.16 per cent or N2.50 to N1,528.49/$1 from the N1,525.99/$1 it was sold at the previous session.
Equally, the local currency tumbled against the Pound Sterling in the same market segment yesterday by N5.25 to settle at N2,087.09/£1 compared with the preceding day’s N2,081.84/£1 and lost N6.27 on the Euro to finish at N1,800.79/€1 versus Thursday’s closing price of N1,794.52/€1.
However, in the black market, the Nigerian Naira gained N10 against the US Dollar during the trading session to finish at N1,540/$1 compared with the previous session’s rate of N1,550/$1.
In the week, the value of the Naira was boosted by sufficient FX liquidity support levels by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
This improvement in the forex market spurred the resumption of the use of Naira debit cards for international payments after it was suspend over two years ago.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market was down on Friday as movements from ancient Bitcoin whales, which were dormant for 14 years, suddenly sprung to life, moving over $1.1 billion worth of BTC. This raised worries that a hack may have occurred.
Solana (SOL) went down by 2.8 per cent to close at $148.23, Dogecoin (DOGE) slumped by 2.4 per cent to sell at $0.1649, Ethereum (ETH) depreciated by 1.3 per cent to finish at $2,527.98, and Litecoin (LTC) shrank by 0.9 per cent to end at $86.95.
Further, Cardano (ADA) declined by 0.8 per cent to settle at $0.5820, Bitcoin (BTC) decreased by 0.7 per cent to finish at $108,301.98, Binance Coin (BNB) crumbled by 0.4 per cent to $656.24, and Ripple (XRP) weakened by 0.3 per cent to $2.22, while the US Dollar Tether (USDT) and the US Dollar Coin (USDC) remained unchanged at $1.00 each.
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Oil prices were slightly up on Friday, as the market looked ahead to this weekend’s meeting of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) and the likelihood of an increase in output for next month.
Brent crude gained 50 cents or 0.7 per cent to close at $68.30 per barrel and the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude increased by 50 cents or 0.75 per cent to trade at $66.50 per barrel.
OPEC+ may increase oil output for August at its meeting on Saturday that is larger than the 411,000 barrels per day hikes it made for May, June and July.
Eight members of the group namely Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Kuwait, Oman, Iraq, Kazakhstan and Algeria are scheduled to meet online on Saturday to decide their oil output policy for August.
They started to unwind their most recent output cut of 2.2 million barrels per day starting in April, and then accelerated the hikes in May, June and July to 411,000 barrels per day for each month, despite the extra supply weighing on crude prices.
The output hikes came after some OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan, produced way over their targets, angering other members that were sticking more closely to agreed cuts.
The 22-member alliance is seeking to expand its market share against the backdrop of growing supplies from other producers like the US. It already pumps about half of the world’s oil.
As of their decision for July output, the eight-member sub-group have made or announced production increases of 1.37 million barrels per day . This is 62 per cent of the production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day that they are unwinding.
The market is also looking at implications of US President Donald Trump’s massive budget which was signed into law at a ceremony at the White House on Friday.
Also, the US is reportedly planning to resume nuclear talks with Iran next week.
Traders also weighed uncertainty over US tariff policy with the end of a 90-day pause on higher levies approaching and some economies are yet to make progress yet.
Barclays said it had raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026 on an improved demand outlook.
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