Buried in the messages of the now infamous “Houthi PC small group” — the Signal group in which members of the United States administration discussed an impending American attack on Houthi positions in Yemen in mid March — was an expression of emerging US policy toward Egypt: “we soon make clear to Egypt and Europe what we expect in return.”
US officials in the group did not spell out what exactly it was that they expected in return for restoring security to the Suez Canal — something that has yet to happen, despite their bullishness — but they were sure that, if they did so, it would be a boon to Egypt and Europe, both of which have faced steep economic costs over the 18 months of Houthis attacks on commercial vessels transiting the canal in response to Israel’s genocidal war.
As a result of Houthi attacks, major shipping companies have been forced to stop using the Red Sea — through which almost 12 percent of global sea trade usually passes — and use a much longer route around southern Africa instead.
For Egypt, the monthly losses of Suez Canal revenues reached around US$800 million due to the regional “situation,” President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi said in March.
According to European, Egyptian and regional officials who spoke to Mada Masr in recent weeks, what the US wants — and is discussing with regional allies — is a fundamental change in Red Sea security that would put the US at the forefront of efforts to police the Red Sea. But so far, the sources say, Egypt has resisted the increasing pressure from the US and its Gulf allies to concede to demands that could further marginalize its own position.
The most immediate issue on the US’s agenda is the threat it sees in the Houthis in Yemen.
Since November 2023, the Houthis have targeted at least 100 trade vessels in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden using missiles, drones and small boat attacks. They have sunk two vessels, seized a third and killed four crew members.
The administration of former US President Joe Biden, alongside the United Kingdom, targeted Houthi positions in Yemen over the course of his time in office. On March 15, the administration of US President Donald Trump launched its own campaign on Yemen, dubbed “Operation Rough Rider.” On the first day, the US launched at least 40 airstrikes across Yemen, mainly in the capital of Sanaa and the Saada Governorate. By the end of March — 15 days after the start of the campaign — the total number of strikes had eclipsed any month prior since the US launched its first strikes on Yemen.
Source: Yemen Data Project – Courtesy: Yemen Data Project
In authorizing the first 40 strikes, Trump promised to use “overwhelming lethal force” until the Iran-backed rebels cease their attacks on shipping along the vital maritime corridor.
At least 31 people were killed in the strikes, the Houthis said, and Trump’s national security adviser said on Sunday that the strikes successfully targeted “multiple” Houthi leaders.
Since March 15, the US has carried out nearly daily strikes on targets in Yemen in what the US Central Command described as a “24/7 operation.”
As of April 22, at least 500 civilians had been killed in the US airstrikes, according to the Yemen Data Project, an independent data collecting initiative focused on the successive foreign bombing campaigns on the country since 2015.
But the scale and frequency of the strikes are costing the US a significant amount of money. According to CNN, the total cost of the US military’s operation in Yemen was nearing $1 billion at the start of April, even with the limited impact the attacks have had in destroying the group’s capabilities.
One of the sources said the Pentagon will likely need to request supplemental funding from Congress to continue the operation, but may not receive it due to criticism of the operation from Capitol Hill.
The rising costs have become a concern for the US administration and this is in part what they “expect in return.”
“Trump wants more military and financial involvement from Egypt” in the fight in Yemen, a European diplomat in the region tells Mada Masr. Speaking in early April, the diplomat added that even Egyptian logistical support for the US attacks on Yemen would not be enough for the US. Cairo has declined to participate militarily and said it does not have the resources to contribute financial support.
Two Egyptian sources confirm that the US has asked for financial and military cooperation from Egypt in the Red Sea.
When Egypt declined to provide financial assistance to the mission in March, according to the first source, the US State Department told the Egyptian Embassy in DC that it would have to think about what to ask for in return.
The source says that the understanding in Cairo is that Trump’s recent demand that American ships be allowed to pass through the Suez Canal “free of charge” as a direct result of this.
However, this has placed Egypt in a bind, the source explains, given that if it accepts the American request, other countries will expect similar concessions, potentially undermining the key revenues that Egypt reaps from passage through the canal.
While there has been no official comment from Cairo, Egypt has not outright rejected the demand, according to a source at a state-affiliated research center, but has formed a committee to study how to respond.
Cairo similarly received US requests to participate militarily in the operation on Yemen.
The second Egyptian official acknowledges that there have been renewed demands for Egyptian participation in the military campaign against the Houthis, both from the United States and its Gulf allies, particularly Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“Although it is directly affected by the disruption of shipping in the Red Sea, Egypt knows that American and Gulf demands are more aimed at protecting the interests of those parties than restoring navigation to the Red Sea and Suez Canal,” the official says. “Egypt has offered to provide advice on the security risks looming in the Red Sea, but it will not be a party to any conflict where the costs outweigh the potential gains.”
The official points to the quagmire Egypt found itself in in the 1960s, when it supported the forces of the revolutionary Yemen Arab Republic.
“This is a process we in Egypt do not wish to repeat, especially after the losses the previous war in Yemen caused Egypt,” the official adds. “The Houthis in Yemen are not a force that can be easily defeated, given Yemen’s geographic nature, their control of the country since 2015, their control of its capabilities, their expulsion of the legitimate government and the extensive Iranian and non-Iranian [such as Chinese] support for the Houthis.”
“The US does not want to fight alone, even though it initiated the war to support Israel and fight the Houthis,” the official says. “Before reaching out to regional friends and allies, it should have demanded that Israel halt its aggression against Gaza, Syria and Lebanon. Egypt has officially informed all its friends and partners in the region, as well as the US, that it will not be a party to any conflict that threatens peace and stability in the Middle East.”
But even if Egypt is unwilling to directly participate in the airstrikes on Yemen, it is facing pressure from another front.
According to a regional diplomat, Tel Aviv and Washington DC are trying to secure a permanent military presence for the US on the Red Sea farther north from Camp Lemonnier, the US Naval Expeditionary Base in Djibouti.
According to the previous Egyptian official and a third Egyptian official, Saudi Arabia offered to allow the US to establish a military base on Tiran and Sanafir, the two islands located at the entrance to the Gulf of Aqaba.
The purpose of the base, according to the third official, would be for the US military to secure the Suez Canal and prevent the entry of any “suspicious” ships that might be used to transport weapons and military equipment to the Gaza Strip or Lebanese territory, especially those coming from Iran.
In 2016, Egypt agreed to transfer sovereignty over the two islands to Saudi Arabia in hopes that it would solidify bilateral relations and bolster Saudi investment in the country. The deal, however, sparked a wave of protest at home and a protracted legal contest. The protests took place on the same day as the national holiday commemorating Israel’s withdrawal from Sinai in 1982. Activists denounced the move as “treasonous” on social media at the time.
While the House of Representatives officially ratified the transfer and the president signed on the bottom line, the transfer is still not finalized, which has caused the once more robust support from Saudi Arabia to wane.
In 2023, Mada Masr reported that Egypt had not yet agreed with Saudi Arabia and Israel on the contents of letters that should be exchanged to complete the final transfer of sovereignty. The details of the security arrangements that should lead to the drafting of these letters are also yet to be agreed upon.
The dispute over Tiran and Sanafir concerns surveillance cameras that Saudi Arabia wants to deploy on the islands in coordination with Israel, two government sources said at the time. The cameras’ range, which would expose all of Sinai, the sources said, exceeded what Egypt found to be permissible according to national security data.
Axios reported in 2022 that the US was trying to mediate between Egypt, Israel and Saudi Arabia to finalize the transfer as part of a larger proposed normalization agreement between Israel and the kingdom. But Egypt’s refusal to participate scuttled the plans.
Today, the first Egyptian official says that there remains a lot of tension between Saudi Arabia and Egypt over Tiran and Sanafir, and the letters required to complete the transfer have still not been sent.
Part of the reason for Egypt’s continued lack of action, according to the regional diplomat and the first Egyptian source, is that there continues to be disagreement within the Egyptian administration on the transfer of the islands.
The new proposal for the establishment of a US military base is similarly divisive within decision making circles in Cairo, with some officials expressing rejection to Mada Masr and others noting that the country is not in a position to outright reject the Saudi entreaty and may ultimately need to find a way to extract concessions that would benefit it.
The third official gave voice to Egypt’s concerns over potential US military presence.
First, Cairo is concerned that strengthening the US military and security presence in the region could impact foreign investments in the Gulf of Suez, particularly those granted to Chinese and Russian companies. This could hinder these investments, which Egypt relies on to accelerate economic development in the Suez Canal axis. It fears this could negatively impact relations with China and Russia, given the two countries’ significant investments in Egypt over the past ten years, their strategic interests and their relationships with actors in Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa.
Second, Egypt fears that such a move may undermine the security arrangements in Sinai that have prevailed since Israel allowed Egypt to increase troop deployments and build new security outposts in its war against the Islamic State-affiliated Province of Sinai. Israel is trying to reduce these arrangements, the source says.
Third, a US base on the islands could strengthen direct security relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which is expected to have negative repercussions for Egypt and the historic vaunted regional position that it has enjoyed since signing the peace treaty with Israel.
The second Egyptian official, however, did not rule out Egypt’s consideration of the Saudi proposal. In exchange for the security arrangements sought by Saudi Arabia on Tiran and Sanafir, the source says, Egypt wants to be allowed to strengthen its security presence on the eastern coast of South Sinai.
Both the second and third Egyptian officials expect the Saudi proposal for Tiran and Sanafir to be on the agenda when Trump visits the kingdom in mid May.
A fourth Egyptian official tells Mada Masr that during Foreign Minister Badr Abdel Atty’s visit to Saudi Arabia last week, the minister and kingdom officials discussed activating the delayed Red Sea forum before Trump’s visit, as they have prepared a host of security agreements regarding the Red Sea that they want to be signed during the meetings. One of the key aims of these agreements, according to the official, is for Saudi Arabia to receive US protection in the face of any attack on the kingdom.
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