Both of my grandfathers fought against the invading Nazis in 1941. One returned home after the war, but the fate of the other remains uncertain. He may have been killed, exiled to Siberia by Stalin, or defected to the West.
He was among the estimated 28 million Soviets who perished during World War II, a conflict that devastated the Soviet Union and pushed it to the brink of annihilation.
That the nation not only survived but emerged as a global superpower speaks to a deep-seated resilience that remains deeply embedded in Russia’s identity.
President Vladimir Putin has tapped into this legacy to rally Russians behind the war in Ukraine, drawing on the same themes of sacrifice and endurance that shaped the Soviet victory in World War II.
Russia has a long history of absorbing early losses, learning from them, and adapting quickly, often to devastating effect.
The Soviets fought fiercely in the siege of Leningrad (now St. Petersburg), enduring unimaginable hardships, and engaged in perhaps the most intense battle in human history at Stalingrad (today Volgograd), where nearly two million lives were lost over five months.
The battle was pivotal not just for its brutality but for its strategic stakes: Stalingrad lay only a 16-hour drive from Baku, then home to the world’s largest oil reserves, which were vital to the Soviet war effort. Capturing Baku was Nazi Germany’s top priority on the Eastern Front. Its failure to do so marked a turning point in the war.
And over a century earlier, after initially losing ground to Napoleon, Russian forces swiftly adapted, rebounded, and ultimately repelled the French invasion, leading to Napoleon’s eventual downfall.
The war in Ukraine follows a similar pattern: initial failure, followed by painful adaptation.
In early 2022, Russia attempted a quick invasion of Ukraine, aiming to seize Kyiv within weeks.
However, Ukrainian drone strikes rapidly immobilized miles-long Russian armored columns. Initially defeated, Russia soon adapted to this new asymmetric warfare environment, ramping up drone production dramatically.
By the end of this year, Russia is projected to produce nearly a million drones, which it uses in increasingly complex aerial attacks involving missiles and decoys designed to overwhelm Ukrainian defenses.
Meanwhile, NATO countries have struggled to match Russia’s pace.
Ammunition production in Europe and the US remains sluggish. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte recently warned that Russia is now producing more ammunition in three months than NATO does in a year.
Some in the West view a long war as a way to bleed Russia dry. But prolonging the conflict carries strategic risks, especially if it distracts NATO from other theaters.
China is watching. If it concludes that the US and its allies are overcommitted in Ukraine, it could see an opening to move on Taiwan.
To prevent Russia from gaining the upper hand and to minimize the broader risks, several steps are crucial.
Accelerate Ammunition Production: NATO countries must significantly accelerate ammunition production to sustain Ukraine’s defensive capabilities against intensified Russian aerial attacks.
Bolster Ukraine’s Air Defenses: NATO and Ukraine should develop cost-effective, precise air defense systems capable of creating protective domes over major Ukrainian cities, enhancing defense against drones and decoys.
Disrupt Russia’s Drone Supply Chain: NATO must intensify efforts to disrupt Russia’s drone production by restricting the flow of critical materials.
Deploy Advanced Jamming Technologies: NATO should deploy advanced technologies to detect, jam, or spoof Russian drones attempting to penetrate Ukrainian airspace.
Reinforce Economic Pressure: Sanctions must be expanded against nations and corporations trading with Russia without legitimate cause, tightening the economic stranglehold on Moscow.
Push for a Credible Peace Framework: While Ukraine has every right to continue defending itself, the West should also be thinking strategically about how the war ends.
Increasing military support to Ukraine could strengthen its position in peace negotiations. The West could assure Russia of Ukraine’s neutrality and non-membership in NATO while pledging Western protection against future invasions.
Recognizing Crimea’s annexation in exchange for Russian withdrawal from other occupied territories, coupled with new Ukrainian elections (excluding President Volodymyr Zelensky), might facilitate compromise.
Russia has learned from its early failures and is preparing for a long war. Its historical ability to adapt under pressure is becoming increasingly evident on the battlefield.
If the West does not respond with the same urgency and resolve, the balance may shift in Russia’s favor — not just in Ukraine, but globally.
The longer the Ukrainian conflict persists, the greater Russia’s opportunity to refine its military efficiency, simultaneously increasing China’s incentive to exploit NATO’s preoccupation and initiate a Taiwan invasion.
Mahir Zeynalov is the Executive Editor of The Defense Post.
The views and opinions expressed here are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the editorial position of The Defense Post.
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Russia Can Survive a Long War. Ukraine Can’t – The Defense Post
