Defense Security Monitor
A Forecast International blog about the arms trade, geopolitics, defense and security, and military spending.
A snapshot of recent news from sources around the world on the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war.
Political Developments
President Donald Trump announced a new push to arm Ukraine and threatened Russia with steep secondary tariffs unless a peace deal is reached within 50 days, marking a sharper stance toward Moscow after months of stalled negotiations. Speaking alongside NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, Trump confirmed that European allies will purchase billions of dollars in U.S. weapons, including Patriot air defense systems, for transfer to Ukraine, while also expressing growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin’s continued attacks. The move comes as Ukraine faces escalating Russian strikes and civilian casualties, with Trump signaling increased urgency to bring Putin to the negotiating table.
Ukrainians broadly welcomed President Donald Trump’s pledge to send more U.S.-made weapons, but expressed concern over the 50-day delay before imposing sanctions on Russia if a peace deal is not reached. With Russian forces intensifying their summer offensive and civilian areas facing relentless attacks, Ukrainian leaders emphasized the urgency of timely arms deliveries funded by European nations. European officials echoed concerns about the timeline but viewed the renewed U.S. engagement as a positive shift.
While some European governments welcomed the pledge, not every European ally will join in the initiative to buy U.S. arms. Two French government officials, speaking to POLITICO, ruled out Paris’ participation in the effort.
The Ukrainian government experienced a reshuffling this week, as Economy Minister Yulia Svyrydenko was appointed the country’s new prime minister. Outgoing Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal will take on the role of defense minister, while Rustem Umerov will now head the National Security Council. Umerov will also lead Ukraine’s negotiating team for dialogue with Russia.
President Volodymyr Zelensky highlighted the need for the new government to accelerate Ukraine’s domestic defense industry, with a goal of providing for 50 percent of the military’s needs locally.
Military Assistance to Ukraine
Ukraine is pressuring its Western allies to provide additional air defense missiles and systems to counter Russia’s drone and missile attacks. The United States is promising to provide additional Patriot surface-to-air missiles (SAMs) to Ukraine. The number of missiles the U.S. will provide to Kyiv was not mentioned. The Netherlands is open to supporting a U.S. plan to send more Patriot missiles to Ukraine. The Congressional Research Service recently released a report on the Patriot missile defense system in relation to the war in Ukraine.
The German government is promising to provide Ukraine with more air defense systems. Germany is reportedly prepared to purchase new Patriot surface-to-air missile (SAM) systems from the United States for delivery to Kyiv. Belgium, meanwhile, announced this week that it will provide EUR140 million in funding to assist Ukraine’s air-defense efforts.
The Ukrainian military could receive the Joint Air-to-Surface Stand-off Missile – Extended Range (JASSM-ER) from the United States. The Trump administration has become increasingly frustrated with Putin’s unwillingness to end the war. Other Western countries are considering the delivery of additional offensive weapons to Ukraine.
The Ukrainian military has received a cargo-hauling unmanned ground vehicle (UGV). Soldiers of the 47th Mechanized Brigade used the UGVs to deliver supplies to frontline positions and evacuate wounded.
Latvia’s Ministry of Defense has delivered the first batch of Patria-made 6×6 armored vehicles to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and expects to deliver another batch “in the near future.” The Latvian government ordered 42 vehicles on Kyiv’s behalf in February at a cost of EUR70 million.
Working together with the European Defence Agency, Denmark will deliver satellite communication services to Ukraine’s military, the Danish MoD announced this week.
Battlefield Updates
President Trump’s 50-day ultimatum for Russia to accept a peace deal, under threat of severe energy sanctions, inadvertently provides the Kremlin with more time for its summer offensive. Nevertheless, strong Ukrainian resistance and their focus on holding ground, despite ammunition shortages, make significant Russian territorial gains unlikely within this timeframe, thereby preventing Ukraine from being forced into Russia’s peace terms.
A senior Ukrainian commander has said Ukraine could achieve victory over Russia if it receives more air defense systems and international restrictions on long-range strikes inside Russia are lifted. Maj. Oleh Shyriaiev’s remarks come as President Donald Trump announced a new weapons deal with NATO countries, including urgently needed Patriot batteries, and reportedly discussed Ukraine targeting Russian cities with President Zelenskyy.
Russia performed another missile and drone attack on Ukraine during the night of July 10-11. Moscow fired 397 Shahed-type and other attack drones at Kyiv. Ukrainian officials said its air defenses shot down 178 aerial targets.
Russian troops continue to advance in the vicinity of Pokrovsk, a key military hub for the Ukrainian military located near Donetsk. While Ukraine still maintains supply lines into Pokrovsk, Russian forces have surrounded much of the city.
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For 50 years, Forecast International intelligence reports have been the aerospace and defense industry standard for accurate research, analysis, and projections. Our experienced analysts compile, evaluate, and present accurate data for decision makers. FI’s market research reports offer concise analysis of individual programs and identify market opportunities. Each report includes a program overview, detailed statistics, recent developments and a competitive analysis, culminating in production forecasts spanning 10 or 15 years. Let our market intelligence reports be a key part of reducing uncertainties and mastering your specific market and its growth potential. Find out more at www.forecastinternational.com
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This Week in the Russia-Ukraine War (July 18) – Defense Security Monitor
