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The International Monetary Fund downgraded growth in nearly all countries amid ongoing uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy
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Donald Trump’s tariffs raise the chance of a U.S. recession, and a subsequent global recession to “almost 100 percent,” Kenneth Rogoff, a former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, told the BBC on Tuesday.
The U.S. economy will be one of the hardest hit by the aggressive tariff plans, the IMF warned earlier in the day as it slashed forecasts for global economic growth, with the U.S. dropping to just 1.8 percent, from a previous forecast of 2.7 percent.
The global economic growth forecast was cut by half a percentage point, with downgrades in nearly all countries amid ongoing uncertainty from the Trump administration’s trade policy.
The White House continues to claim that trade agreements are being negotiated, with Trump even saying in a statement: “We’re doing very well in respect to a potential trade deal with China.”
This came after Vice President JD Vance admitted that Trump’s aggressive tariff increases will profoundly change the U.S. economy and other nations.
In a speech in India, Vance said the “rebalancing” from aggressive tariffs would “produce great benefits for American workers.”
John Bowden writes:
…in conservative circles, the discussion over Hegseth’s fate has evolved from palace intrigue and a simple discussion about the secretary’s professionalism to a deeper debate over the two main factions vying for control of the second Trump administration’s foreign policy agenda.
Read on…
Wall Street rebounded on Tuesday as a spate of quarterly earnings reports and hints at the de-escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions brought buyers in from the sidelines.
A broad rally boosted all three major U.S. indices by more than 2%, as investors looked past Trump’s ramped-up rhetoric against Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who is widely considered a stabilizing force for the markets.
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, when asked about Trump’s attacks on Powell, said the Fed’s independence is “foundational” to better economic outcomes.
Having been battered for weeks by the White House’s erratic and multi-front tariff disputes, the S&P 500 is currently about 14.4% below its record closing high reached on February 19.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that while trade negotiations with Beijing will likely be “a slog,” he believes that there will be a de-escalation of U.S.-China trade tensions.
According to preliminary data, the S&P 500 gained 129.13 points, or 2.50%, to end at 5,287.33 points, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 429.52 points, or 2.71%, to 16,300.42. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1,013.56 points, or 2.66%, to 39,183.97.
With reporting from Reuters
…and yet is only in talks with 34 countries.
Andrew Feinberg reports from Washington, D.C.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent believes there will be a de-escalation in U.S.-China trade tensions, but negotiations with Beijing have not yet started and would be a “slog,” according to a person present at closed-door remarks he gave to investors at a JP Morgan conference on Tuesday.
Bessent described the current bilateral trade situation as a two-way embargo, and neither side views the status quo as sustainable, the person told Reuters. The treasury secretary added that the Trump administration’s goal was not to decouple the world’s two largest economies.
Instead, Bessent expressed hope for a “big, beautiful rebalancing” of China’s economy towards more consumption and the U.S. economy towards more manufacturing, but it was unclear whether Beijing was ready to do that, the source said.
The private investment conference took place in Washington, D.C., on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank Spring Meetings. Bloomberg first reported on some of Bessent’s remarks.
Currently, the U.S. has 145 percent tariffs on Chinese goods, and China has 125 percent tariffs on American-made goods.
Bessent predicts that a de-escalation would occur in the “very near future” and would provide “a sigh of relief” for markets, the person said.
Bessent’s comments contributed to positive corporate earnings momentum on Wall Street, which rebounded from Monday’s sell-off sparked by President Donald Trump’s criticism of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.
Major U.S. stock indexes were up more than 2% in afternoon trading.
In other remarks, Bessent indicated that the Trump administration would be willing to offer Argentina’s government some financial support if a global shock derailed the South American country’s economic recovery, the person said.
Such help would be contingent on Javier Milei’s government remaining committed to reforms and ensuring that any difficulties were not Argentina’s fault. Bessent was in Buenos Aires last week to show support for the reforms and a $20 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.
With reporting from Reuters
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is set to have its worst April since 1932 after losing almost 1,000 points on Monday, Dow Jones Market Data shows.
Similarly, the S&P 500 has had its worst performance since inauguration day for any new president dating to 1928, Bespoke Investment Group has found.
Concerns about President Donald Trump’s trade policies and the possibility that he may remove Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have prompted investors to expect bigger losses in the near future. There are few who believe that the White House’s negotiations with trade partners will resolve any issues quickly enough to reduce the tension, according to The Wall Street Journal.
Gustaf Kilander reports from Washington, D.C.
At today’s White House briefing, Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt was asked about the independence of the Federal Reserve.
Leavitt responded: “I think the president made his position on the Fed and Powell quite clear. The president believes they have been making moves and taking action in the name of politics rather than in the name of what is right for the American economy.
“The president has the right to express his displeasure with the Fed and believes interest rates should be lower.
“I also spoke to Kevin Hassett about the Fed. He’s called into question the Fed’s Independence and whether they are actually doing things out of the best interest of the economy or if they are doing it for partisan reasons. The president wants to see interest rates lower. He’s made that quite clear.”
Watch that moment here:
James Moore writes:
As chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell is one of the world’s most important and consequential economic figures. He is also, according to Donald Trump, the man who gave him the job, “a major loser”.
The puerile president wrote on social media: “There can be a SLOWING of the economy unless Mr. Too Late, a major loser, lowers interest rates, NOW.”
In recent days, such has been the ferocity of Trump’s personal attacks on Powell over his handling of the US economy that, on Monday, the value of the dollar sank to its lowest point in three years. Stocks, already bruised by the “Trump Slump” from global tariffs, have taken a further hit.
Continue reading…
Holly Baxter writes:
Last week, the Pentagon quietly placed three top aides — Dan Caldwell, Colin Carroll and Darin Selnick — on administrative leave in connection with a widening probe into leaked internal messages from a private Signal chat. The messages, which allegedly revealed internal dissent and strategic planning inside Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s inner circle, have prompted national security concerns and questions about internal vetting at the Department of Defense.
That, of course, comes hot on the heels of the whole “bombing the Houthis while sharing fist-bump emojis and American flags” thing we all had to contend with a few weeks prior.
If you were hoping for sober accountability or a show of calm leadership in response, however, Tuesday morning’s Fox & Friends interview with Hegseth delivered instead…something else entirely.
Read on…
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Trump tariffs latest: US and global recession chances ‘almost 100%’, warns economist – The Independent
