Published Apr 17, 2025 7:32 PM EDT
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Russian forces have launched what could be the vanguard of a new offensive in southern Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Oblast, according to the Ukrainian and Russian militaries. While the success of this operation is in dispute, it marks an expansion of Moscow’s effort to stretch out Kyiv’s already-besieged forces.
The attack was launched Wednesday evening local time by “assault groups from several regiments of the 58th Combined Arms Army of the Southern Military District,” the Defense Forces of Southern Ukraine (DFSU) claimed on Telegram. It involved “at least 320 personnel, 40 units of armored combat vehicles, three tanks and about a dozen buggies.”
The fighting was centered around frontline areas near the settlements of Pyatikhatki, Stepove, Lobkove, Mala Tokmachka and Mali Shcherbaky, DFSU stated.
After Ukrainian aerial reconnaissance detected the advance, the Russian forces were attacked by drones and artillery, according to DFSU. During the ensuing 150-minute battle, Ukraine claims it destroyed a large number of Russian vehicles, killed scores of troops and thwarted the advance.
On April 16, on the Zaporizhzhia front, Russians launched an assault that involved at least 320 soldiers, 40 units of armored vehicles, three tanks, and around ten buggies.
Ukraine's aerial reconnaissance detected the enemy's movement in advance; drone and artillery strikes were… pic.twitter.com/MNSTHRwez8
Russian sources offer a different take.
“The Vostok Group of Forces continued advancing into the depths of the enemy’s defence [and] inflicted losses on manpower and hardware…in Gulay Pole, and Chervonoye,” the Russian Defense Ministry claimed on Telegram.
The Kremlin-connected Rybar Telegram channel offered its account.
Russian forces have made a small advance toward Mala Tokmachka, though the situation there “remains shrouded in the ‘fog of war’ as a result of which it is currently unknown whether Russian fighters have managed to gain a foothold in the village itself.”
Mala Tokmachka is a tactically important village, on the edge of what has largely been a static front line. It sits astride the T0815 highway, which runs toward Zaporizhzhia, a large city about 36 miles to the northeast. Of note, it was the area where Ukraine lost its first U.S.-donated Bradley Fighting Vehicle as well as a Polish-donated Leopard 2A6 tank and one BMR-2 Mine-Clearing vehicle during the failed summer counteroffensive in June 2023. The village was on the edge of Ukraine’s furthest advance in Zaporizhzhia during that campaign.
Capturing Mala Tokmachka and the surrounding villages could give Russian forces greater maneuver room as they seek to force Ukraine to commit precious resources to the southern front.
“The offensive of Russian troops is developing in the Zaporizhzhya direction,” Rybar suggested. “The eastern section of the front remained static for a long time, but since March of this year, units of the Russian Armed Forces have begun to move here.”
“…the very fact of the attack and subsequent advance once again confirms that the vector of attention of the Russian command is gradually beginning to shift to the Zaporizhzhia operational direction, noticeably increasing the intensity of military clashes on the once ‘frozen’ section of the front.”
While it remains unclear if Russia has the resources to exploit any gains it could make here, the situation may prove more desperate for Ukraine. Kyiv is still trying to fend off Russian advances in the east, defend against a new incursion in the Sumy area and maintain a small presence in the Russian regions of Kursk and Belgorod. Though large-scale maneuvers by both sides have been limited by the omnipresence of drones, a Russian breakthrough now would have ripple effects across the 600 miles of frontlines. It could also give Moscow another chip to bargain in any peace negotiations.
Elsewhere on the battlefield, Russian forces are making incremental gains in several areas of Ukraine’s east, with several sources saying Russia launched a new push toward Pokrovsk in Donetsk Oblast. Here are the key takeaways from the latest Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessment:
1/ Multiple Ukrainian sources confirm that the Russians attempted a "massive" offensive today in the #Prokrovskyi District of Donetsk. AFU defenders from the 14th Assault Brigade "Chervona Kalyna" defeated the assault in piecemeal.#OSINT pic.twitter.com/lztxQEtDPD
NEW: The White House reiterated that the United States will not engage in economic agreements with Russia until Russia agrees to a ceasefire, amid continued Russian efforts to deflect blame onto Ukraine for the Kremlin's rejection of such a ceasefire. (1/3) pic.twitter.com/phUqIXRJJt
A U.S.-Ukrainian mineral deal could be signed as early as next week, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters at the White House.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later “clarified that White House officials were ‘still working on the details’ of where and when the signing would take place, but that they were ‘shooting for’ around April 26,” The Hill reported.
“It’s substantially what we agreed on previously, the president was here, we had a memorandum of understanding, we went straight to the big deal … and I think it’s an 80-page agreement, and that’s what will be signed,” Bessent said of the contents of the deal.
The White House update came after Zelensky reportedly said Kyiv and Washington could sign a memorandum of intent related to the deal as soon as today, The Hill noted.
The Trump administration has lowered the payback for the provided aid it seeks under a minerals agreement with Ukraine from $300 billion to $100 billion, Bloomberg reported on April 16, citing undisclosed sources.
The minerals deal with Ukraine will be signed next Thursday – President Trump.
"We have a minerals deal which I guess is gonna be signed next Thursday." pic.twitter.com/cJr71UdFc3
China is supplying Russia with gunpowder and artillery shells, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky claimed on Thursday.
“I think we will be able to say in detail next week that we believe that Chinese representatives are engaged in the production of some weapons on the territory of Russia,” he added.
Earlier this month, “two Chinese citizens were captured by Ukrainian soldiers while fighting in the Russian army ranks against Ukraine in Donetsk Oblast,” the Kyiv Independent noted. Later, Zelensky said that at least “several hundred” Chinese nationals are fighting on Russia‘s side in Ukraine.
Zelensky’s statement on Thursday marks Kyiv’s first confirmation that Beijing supports Russia’s war effort by providing weapons, the publication noted. As we have previously reported, Iran and North Korea also supply Russia with weapons and, in the case of the latter, troops as well.
Zelensky: We weren’t surprised to learn that China is supplying weapons, gunpowder, and artillery to Russia.
Chinese representatives are involved in manufacturing some weapons on Russian territory. 6/ pic.twitter.com/NlebZguHEi
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and presidential envoy Steve Witkoff were in Paris to discuss the future of efforts to end the war in Ukraine. There they met with French President Emmanuel Macron and top Ukrainian and European officials.
The two U.S. officials were having lunch discussions with Macron and “talks with European counterparts to advance President Trump’s goal to end the Russia-Ukraine war and stop the bloodshed,” State Department spokeswoman Tammy Bruce said.
“The meetings come as concerns grow about U.S. President Donald Trump’s readiness to draw closer to Russia, and after weeks of U.S. efforts to broker a ceasefire in Ukraine,” The Associated Press reported. “There is also frustration over the Trump administration’s other moves, from tariffs on some of its closest partners to rhetoric about NATO and Greenland.”
Witkoff met Thursday with Ukrainian presidential adviser Andrii Yermak and top officials from France, Britain and Germany. Rubio was expected to meet later with the French foreign minister.
Ukraine was holding “a series of bilateral and multilateral meetings with representatives of the states of the coalition of the willing that are able to guarantee security,″ Yermak said. He was referring to a group of about 30 nations, led by the U.K. and France, discussing “a possible coalition to police any future peace agreement with Russia,” the AP explained. “The success of the coalition’s operation hinges on U.S. backup with airpower or other military assistance, but the Trump administration has made no public commitment to provide support.”
So far, the Trump administration has been unwilling to commit to such an effort.
Top U.S. Officials in Paris for Talks on Ukraine, Iran
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and White House Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff are meeting now with French President Emmanuel Macron and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot in Paris at the Elysee… pic.twitter.com/WdDCrXYltr
In the wake of the deadly Russian Palm Sunday attack on Sumy, Bruce told reporters that there would be no discussion with Russia of sanctions relief “until after the carnage has stopped.”
US Department of State spokesperson Tammy Bruce:
"What I can say is a reminder that what was clear from the beginning: there would be no negotiations, no decisions, no arrangements [with Russia] until after the carnage has stopped.
And after Palm Sunday, it's clearly a dynamic… https://t.co/ZkumXo22ae pic.twitter.com/MEiPAgIU57
In a recent piece examining Trump’s flagging ceasefire effort, The Economist reported his administration’s objection to continuing the flow of international aid to Ukraine.
“Pentagon figures recently questioned one ally about why it was still supplying weapons to Ukraine—a challenge that was ignored. Diplomats in Washington also report that some Trump aides say privately that they are ‘fed up’ with Europe’s effort to strengthen Ukraine,” the publication stated. “As always with such a chaotic administration, it is hard to distinguish the true signal from the noise.”
Also noted in the story is the lack of new U.S. support for Ukraine.
“Notably absent from Mr Trump’s discourse is any notion of additional military aid for Ukraine,” The Economist posited. “Indeed, America’s support is dwindling. The flow of weapons approved by Joe Biden will run out in the coming months, and Mr Trump has not authorized any more. Another budget allocation to support Ukraine looks unlikely.”
The Economist: Trump's aides "fed up" with Europe's efforts to strengthen Ukraine
Trump’s attempt to secure a ceasefire within 100 days is faltering, with Russia ignoring US proposals, stepping up attacks, and Trump shifting blame to Ukraine.https://t.co/oDovtSqikw
Former National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan offered up several reasons behind the very slow provision of U.S.-donated Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMS) short-range ballistic missiles to Ukraine.
Speaking Tuesday at the Institute of Politics Harvard Kennedy School, Sullivan said lack of supply, not fear of drawing Vladimir Putin’s ire, was the driving factor.
“The reason why we didn’t provide them originally is because the Secretary of Defense and the U.S. military told the president [President Joe Biden] that the United States did not have enough of these in our inventory to meet our basic deterrence needs for the United States and said, essentially, [we] would not recommend or advise that these be given to another country,” Sullivan explained. “Over time, over the course of two years, we produced more. We produced enough to be able to supply Ukraine with several hundred ATACMS.”
However, concerns about escalating U.S. tensions with Russia were not inconsequential, Sullivan noted.
“…in those early months, in the period of April, May of 2022, the question of escalation was different than it was in 2024,” he suggested. “… Did we learn and were we willing to do things later in the war than we weren’t earlier in the war? And the answer to that question was yes, because we were prepared to take on more risk as this went along.”
Regardless, despite Ukrainian tactical successes of using these weapons beginning in October 2023, Sullivan said they were not game-changers.
“We ended up providing Ukraine with a very significant number of these systems down to the level where, again, we basically have no more to give,” Sullivan surmised. “And the idea that they made a major difference operationally in the war has not been borne out by the evidence. So I think a lot has been put on this ATACMS decision to suggest, ‘Oh, if only you’d given ATACMS, the war would have turned out totally differently.’ And yet, the experience of the use of ATACMS by Ukraine on the battlefield, I think, suggests that that is not, in fact, the case.”
"The U.S. did not supply ATACMS missiles to Ukraine during Biden's presidency not out of fear of World War III, but due to a lack of stockpiles." – Jake Sullivan, former national security advisor to Biden. pic.twitter.com/9tp8VbcGf9
Russian drone strikes on Dnipro and Odesa killed at least three, injured dozens and caused widespread property damage, Zelensky said on X.
“They targeted ordinary residential buildings, ordinary civilian infrastructure,” Zelensky explained. “The rubble is still being cleared. Currently, 16 people are in city hospitals; in total, 28 people were injured, including 4 children. All of them are receiving assistance. Tragically, three people were killed by this Russian strike…”
In addition, three people were wounded in Odesa, Zelensky stated.
“Residential buildings, a pharmacy, and a church were damaged. The Sumy region came under aerial bomb attacks, while Kharkiv and Donetsk regions were hit by Russian ballistic missiles.”
It was a difficult night in Dnipro—a Russian drone strike hit the city. They targeted ordinary residential buildings, ordinary civilian infrastructure. The rubble is still being cleared. Currently, 16 people are in city hospitals; in total, 28 people were injured, including 4… pic.twitter.com/v8tNWP5Lf4
The attack on the city of Izium in Kharkiv Oblast hit homes and a school, injuring at least five children, officials stated.
Last night, russia launched a combined attack on Izium in Kharkiv Obalst with missiles and drones, striking homes and a school. Five civilians, including a 7-year-old girl, were injured. Two more women suffered acute shock. pic.twitter.com/s8shHlmLib
Meanwhile in Kherson, Ukrainian officials displayed a photograph of what they say is a Ukrainian ambulance destroyed in a Russian airstrike.
A Russian drone struck an ambulance in hometown Kherson early this morning. At 7 am! A 65-year-old paramedic and a 61-year-old driver were injured. My mom is a doctor, too. I just can’t imagine! #RussianAggression pic.twitter.com/uHoiZ7WDKu
A report released earlier this month “cites leaked U.S. military documents that suggest a Russian system called Tobol — that was originally designed to protect Russian satellites from jamming — was used to disrupt Starlink commercial satellite signals over Ukrainian territory,” Space.com wrote. “Those leaked documents suggest that Russia has used at least three Tobol installations to try and disrupt Starlink commercial satellite signals over Eastern Ukraine.”
Russia “appears to also be developing a newer, more sophisticated system called Kalinka, which is intended to detect and disrupt signals to and from Starlink satellites in order to interfere with Ukrainian drones and military communications,” Space.com added, citing the Secure World Foundation (SWF) report. “Andrei Bezrukov, the director of the Russian Center for Unmanned Systems and Technologies, which is developing the Kalinka system, told state media that the so-called ‘Starlink killer’ could also detect communication terminals connected to Starshield, the military version of Starlink that’s designed with enhanced security features.”
Starlink, developed by Elon Musk’s SpaceX company, has provided a critical means of communication for Ukrainian forces.
Starlink is now even on the verge/currently of being jammed. Technically any radio signal can be jammed/corrupted.
They had the ideal control over the rocket with the original TOW system. Just needed the fiber optic upgrade. https://t.co/10NW8c0jNf
The Ukrainian Defense Ministry (MoD) has approved the use of the new UNEX armored amphibious uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV).
“The self-propelled platform is built on a special chassis that provides exceptional mobility in the most difficult conditions. The platform easily moves on water, floodplains, swamps, quagmires, sand, difficult surfaces and ice,” the MoD claimed. “The weight distribution between the axles and wide tires create pressure on the surface less than that of an infantryman’s foot. Thanks to this, the platform does not activate mines designed to damage automobiles and armored vehicles.”
Ukraine's army received UNEX UGV, a Ukrainian-made amphibious robot with exceptional mobility on water, swamps, and ice. Its low pressure prevents triggering vehicle mines. Resistant to EW, it can be armed or used for logistics, evacuation, and demining. https://t.co/kcR4qN6nH6
In another iteration of advances in uncrewed systems warfare, Russia unveiled an uncrewed ground vehicle (UGV) carrying an electronic warfare (EW) pod. The specifications of this system are not publicly known.
Russian UGV with an EW pod https://t.co/ZDwqneYCPb https://t.co/JbeyQyaybb pic.twitter.com/MHvQfDkpRf
Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence Directorate (GUR) received a donated Sikorsky S-76A twin-engine helicopter, the first of its kind to be used in the war-torn nation.
The helicopter “was transported from Canada as part of a charitable initiative by the Helijet International airline, the Maple Hope Foundation, and the Ukrainian World Congress,” GUR said on Telegram.
“The helicopter will rescue both our employees and [fighters] of the Special Operations Forces,” GUR commander Lt. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov said. “Now, thanks to your charitable organizations, it will be easier.”
The Defence Intelligence of Ukraine has received a unique medevac helicopter as part of a charitable initiative — the Sikorsky S-76A.
The cost of such a medevac ranges from 1 to 2 million Canadian dollars. This is the first helicopter of its kind in Ukraine. The Sikorsky S-76A… pic.twitter.com/ezDK1plVO9
Ukraine increased production of its domestic cruise missiles by eight-fold last year, Strategic Industries Minister Herman Smetanin said during a briefing marking Ukraine’s Gunsmith Day last week. He highlighted the progress since 2022, when Ukraine was only able to manufacture a single type of cruise missile, the Neptune.
“Ukraine has also more than doubled its production of long-range drones in 2024 compared to the previous year, which is a 22-fold increase compared to 2022,” the Kyiv Independent reported. “In total, 324 new types of weapons were developed in Ukraine by the end of 2024.”
Ukraine has massively increased its domestic long-range missile production, reportedly over 700% in the last year, per Strategic Industries Minister Smetanin.
Ukrainian missile production has increased 2100% since 2022, with new systems like the Neptune LACM entering service. pic.twitter.com/NRo4rilVlZ
Ukraine’s Magyar Birds drone unit released a long video compilation of first-person view (FPV) attacks on some of its targets, which included among others a bridge and a Grad multiple launch rocket system (MLRS).
Pretty wild update from 🇺🇦 Magyar "Jagga Jagga" – blowing up an already mined bridge, fully loaded Grad MLRS and everything in-between with FPV drones. pic.twitter.com/9334UBJaEH
You can see an isolated clip from that video showing the bridge attack below.
❗️Bridge blowup caused by Ukrainian fiber optic FPV drone hitting prepared charges. Work by "🇺🇦Birds of the Magyar". pic.twitter.com/c0my5mjWh6
A Russian soldier shot a video of the so-called “road of death” in Belgorod. It shows cars and trucks – likely destroyed by Ukrainian attacks – littering both sides of the road.
A Russian soldier showed a "road of death" in Russia's Belgorod region. According to him, the number of burned vehicles on this road doubled in just one day. The car he was driving also burned down. pic.twitter.com/yZxry7pJTL
After broadcasting a video of a Russian soldier operating drones from a Moscow apartment, the Russian official RIA Novosti news outlet reportedly deleted it. The move was likely to maintain operational security, given the ability of the military and open-source trackers alike to geolocate the apartment.
Russian media briefly published a video showing troops operating FPV drones from a Moscow City skyscraper — then quickly deleted it. pic.twitter.com/wStBoQkh8y
An FPV drone attack on 10 Russian soldiers riding on the back of a vehicle was likened in the following video to bowling pins being toppled by a “strike,” wherein the ball knocks down all 10 pins at once.
🇷🇺 Strike pic.twitter.com/OcG9nAFumN
And finally, seeking shelter from an FPV drone, a Russian soldier flipped over a wagon and hid himself underneath. The wagon proved to be an insufficient method of avoiding these weapons.
🇷🇺 Russian is hiding in wheelbarrow pic.twitter.com/9eX6gt86jt
That’s it for now.
Contact the author: howard@thewarzone.com
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