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Posted by Scott Lucas | May 11, 2025 | 0
Vladimir Putin speaks from the Kremlin, Moscow, Russia, May 11, 2025
Saturday’s Coverage: European Leaders in Kyiv
Map: Institute for the Study of War
UPDATE 1925 GMT:
In yet another chaotic statement on social media, Donald Trump has removed the US insistence on a 30-day unconditional ceasefire before direct Russia-Ukraine talks.
Trump’s envoy Keith Kellogg had posted earlier on Sunday (see 1325 GMT), “An unconditional 30 day ceasefire first and, during it, move into comprehensive peace discussions. Not the other way around.”
But Trump intervened on his Truth Social platform:
Putin…doesn’t want to have a ceasefire agreement with Ukraine, but rather wants to meet on Thursday, in Turkey, to negotiate a possible end to the bloodbath. Ukraine should agree to this, immediately.
At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the U.S., will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”
Trump tilted once more towards blame of Kyiv: “I’m starting to doubt that Ukraine will make a deal with Putin, who’s too busy celebrating the Victory of World War II….Have the meeting, now!”
UPDATE 1911 GMT:
In his nightly video address to the nation, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky has said:
Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire — this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are proposing it, and the whole world is calling for it. We await a clear response from Russia.
While calling for the ceasefire, Zelensky indicated he will travel to Istanbul on Thursday, emphasizing:
I expect Putin to come to Türkiye as well. Personally. And I hope that this time, Putin won’t be looking for excuses as to why he “can’t” make it.
He added, “We have repeatedly heard from our partners that they are prepared to strengthen sanctions against Russia if Putin rejects a ceasefire. Time will tell.”
Starting tomorrow, we await a ceasefire — this proposal is on the table. A full and unconditional ceasefire, one that lasts long enough to provide a necessary foundation for diplomacy, could significantly bring peace closer. Ukraine has long proposed this, our partners are… pic.twitter.com/TVpJbldfh4
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 11, 2025
The Kremlin rejected any deployment of European peacekeepers in Ukraine as part of the arrangements ending Russia’s invasion.
Spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, “We cannot allow NATO’s military infrastructure to get that close to our borders.”
UPDATE 1424 GMT:
Russian journalist Andrei Kolesnikov says Vladimir Putin held no consultations with aides last night over the Ukraine-Europe ceasefire initiative.
Instead, Putin sat alone and wrote his speech before delivering it at 2 a.m.
UPDATE 1325 GMT:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has spoken by phone with Vladimir Putin.
The Turkish Government’s statement indicated that Erdoğan supported Putin’s call for direct talks with Ukraine — but only after the Kremlin accepted the Ukraine-Europe proposal for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire.
Welcoming President Putin’s statement for the peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to be resumed in İstanbul, President Erdoğan said that Türkiye stands ready to host the negotiations that will lead to a lasting solution.
Noting that a window of opportunity to achieve peace has opened, President Erdoğan said that a comprehensive ceasefire would create the necessary environment for peace talks.
Donald Trump appeared to eagerly welcomed Putin’s statement (see Original Entry) but his envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, echoed Erdoğan’s terms:
Even the Prime Minister of New Zealand gets it. As President Trump has repeatedly said, stop the killing!! An unconditional 30 day ceasefire first and, during it, move into comprehensive peace discussions. Not the other way around. https://t.co/6PzcceP1vs
— Keith Kellogg (@generalkellogg) May 11, 2025
Analyst Janis Kluge, noting a statement by Putin’s foreign policy advisor Yuri Ushakov on Sunday, assessed that the Kremlin is maintaining its maximum demands over takeover of Ukrainian territory and “demilitarization” of Ukraine.
If you still wondered about the substance of Putin's Istanbul talks:
Ushakov now says they should be based on Istanbul 1.0 (including limits on Ukrainian military, RU + UKR were never close to an agreement here), plus "realities on the ground".
Putin wants capitulation talks.
— Janis Kluge (@jakluge) May 11, 2025
UPDATE 1305 GMT:
In his first Sunday noon blessing, Pope Leo XIV called for a just and lasting peace in Ukraine.
The new pontiff said:
I carry in my heart the sufferings of the beloved Ukrainian people. Let everything possible be done to achieve a true, just and lasting peace as soon as possible. May all the prisoners be freed and may the children return to their families.
Ukraine Presidential Chief of Staff Andrii Yermak posted:
Thank you for this support. The war must end, the fire must cease, and all prisoners and children abducted by Russia must return home.
For now, there is only one person who doesn’t want this to happen. But Russia must stop all of it.
— Andriy Yermak (@AndriyYermak) May 11, 2025
UPDATE 1235 GMT:
The war monitor Deep State has confirmed that Russian forces stepped up frontline assaults during Vladimir Putin’s self-declared 72-hour “ceasefire” from May 8 to 11.
The analysts said Russia carried out 193, 196, and 161 attacks on May 8, 9, and 10. The average daily number of attacks in April was 155.
“The battlefield activity doesn’t resemble a ceasefire at all — it looks more like an intensification of efforts disguised by false declarations from Russia’s military and political leadership,” DeepState summarized.
UPDATE 1208 GMT:
With Vladimir Putin proposing direct talks with Ukraine in Istanbul on Thursday, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has told French counterpart Emmanuel Macron:
A historic turning point has been reached in efforts to end the war between Ukraine and Russia. This opportunity must be seized. Turkey is ready to provide all kinds of support, including hosting negotiations, to achieve a ceasefire and lasting peace.
Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan joined an online meeting on Saturday with Volodymyr Zelensky and European leaders who were in Kyiv.
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said Russia’s offer to negotiate directly with Ukraine is “a good sign” but “far from sufficient”.
“We expect Moscow to agree to a ceasefire that allows real talks to take place. First the weapons must be silenced, then the discussions can begin,” he explained.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, who was also in Kyiv on Saturday, wrote, “The world, however, іs waiting for a univocal decision on an immediate and unconditional ceasefire. Ukraine is ready. No more victims!”
And Czech Foreign Minister Jan Lipavský posted bluntly:
It is simple. Ukraine and the democratic world demands a ceasefire, Putin wants to keep shooting.
— Jan Lipavský (@JanLipavsky) May 11, 2025
UPDATE 1201 GMT:
Local officials have confirmed that three residents were murdered and four injured by Russian shelling of the Sumy region in northeast Ukraine over the past day.
Another civilian was killed during a Russian drone strike on Kherson city in southern Ukraine on Saturday morning.
UPDATE 1253 GMT:
The Trump Administration has approved the transfer of 125 long-range artillery rockets and 100 Patriot air defense missiles from Germany to Ukraine.
A “US Congressional official” confirmed the Administration’s permission on Friday.
Earlier this month, the Administration lifted its suspension of the delivery of military aid to Ukraine.
Since then, there have been transfers of up to $50 million of items such as .50-mm machine gun ammunition; a $310 million package of technical and training support, including out-of-service F-16 fighter jets for spare parts; a Patriot system from Israel.
UPDATE 1140 GMT:
Donald Trump’s envoy, real estate Steve Witkoff, relied upon a translator from the Kremlin during his meeting with Vladimir Putin in Moscow on April 25, confirm “a US official and two Western officials with knowledge of the talks”.
Witkoff had hoped to confirm Putin’s acceptance of a US proposal, with many of the Kremlin’s demands, by Ukraine, France, Germany, and the UK. But Kyiv and its European partners rejected the one-page document, prompting US Secretary of State Marco Rubio to withdraw from talks in London on April 23.
The next morning, Russia murdered 12 civilians and injured 90 in Kyiv as it launched 70 missiles and 145 drones across Ukraine.
Witkoff, who does not speak Russian, was on his own as he was greeted by Putin in English. Taken to the meeting table, the envoy looked at the woman standing next to him and said, “Are you my translator? Are you from the Embassy?”
Putin was accompanied by his top foreign policy and financial advisors, Yuri Ushakov and Kirill Dmitriev.
“If they speak to each other in Russian, [Witkoff] doesn’t know what they are saying,” a Western official noted.
Searching online images, analyst Christo Grozev establishes that Witkoff’s interpreter, Natalia Koshkina, works for Russian political figures such as Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, and former President Dmitry Medvedev — and the head of Russia’s foreign intelligence agency, Sergey Naryshkin.
Koshkina, 33, also served as 3rd secretary of the Russian mission to NATO in Brussels.
ORIGINAL ENTRY: Vladimir Putin has rejected a Ukraine and European agreement, backed by the Trump Administration, for an unconditional 30-day ceasefire.
Driving home his statement, Russia resumed its drone attacks on the Ukrainian capital Kyiv and other areas on Sunday morning.
On Saturday in Kyiv, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky and four European leaders — France’s Emmanuel Macron, Germany’s Friedrich Merz, the UK’s Keir Starmer, and Poland’s Donald Tusk — issued a statement setting out the ceasefire. They threatened Putin with further sanctions, including on energy and banking sectors, if he failed to comply.
Macron emphasized, “In the event of a violation of this ceasefire, we have agreed that massive sanctions will be prepared and coordinated between Europeans and Americans.”
Starmer added that the group would “increase our military aid for Ukraine’s defense to pressure Russia back to the table”: “All of us here, together with the US, are calling Putin out. If he’s serious about peace, then he has a chance to show it now.”
Joint Statement by the Leaders of France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom, and Ukraine Following the Meeting in Kyiv.
On Saturday, May 10, 2025, the leaders of France, Germany, Poland, the United Kingdom and Ukraine met in Kyiv.
They agreed that starting Monday, May 12,… pic.twitter.com/afDURGGIxG
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 10, 2025
Putin’s Rejection
After the statement from Kyiv, Putin kept reporters waiting for seven hours for a press conference at the Kremlin.
He appeared at 2 a.m. to dismiss the Ukraine-Europe initiative. Then he tried to regain the diplomatic advantage, “We are proposing that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any preconditions.”
The Russian said the two sides can meet in Istanbul on May 15 about “the restoration of a long-term, lasting peace” if certain conditions are met.
Saying that he will speak to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan on Sunday, Putin blustered:
Our proposal, as they say, is on the table. The decision is now up to the Ukrainian authorities and their curators, who are guided, it seems, by their personal political ambitions, and not by the interests of their peoples.
Zelensky responded:
It is a positive sign that the Russians have finally begun to consider ending the war. The entire world has been waiting for this for a very long time. And the very first step in truly ending any war is a ceasefire.
There is no point in continuing the killing even for a single…
— Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський (@ZelenskyyUa) May 11, 2025
France’s Macron added:
President Zelensky committed without setting any condition. We now expect an equally clear response from Russia.
There can be no negotiations while weapons are speaking. There can be no dialogue if, at the same time, civilians are being bombed.
In Kyiv and alongside President Trump, we made a clear proposal: an unconditional 30-day ceasefire starting on Monday.
President Zelensky committed without setting any condition. We now expect an equally clear response from Russia.
There can be no negotiations while…
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 11, 2025
In contrast, Donald Trump said in a social media post that he “will continue to work with both sides” to end the Russian invasion: “A potentially great day for Russia and Ukraine!” he wrote on his Truth Social platform.
Drones Attack Kyiv
Almost as soon as Putin finished speaking, Russia launched 108 drones from multiple directions on Ukraine, including on Kyiv.
Air defenses downed 60 drones. Another 41 were lost to electronic counter-measures.
Several private homes were damaged near the capital. A 70-year-old man was treated for an acute stress reaction.
The Ukraine Air Force said the Sumy region, in the northeast bordering Russia, suffered more than 120 attacks on 31 settlements in the past 24 hours. There were no casualties, but several civilian structures were destroyed or damaged.
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Scott Lucas is Professor of International Politics at the Clinton Institute, University College Dublin; Professor Emeritus of International Politics at the University of Birmingham; and editor-in-chief of EA WorldView. He is a specialist in US and British foreign policy and international relations, especially the Middle East and Iran. Formerly he worked as a journalist in the US, writing for newspapers including the Guardian and The Independent and was an essayist for The New Statesman before he founded EA WorldView in November 2008.
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