A leading think tank says Russian commanders are operating as if Vladimir Putin does not intend to end the war in the near future, regardless of ceasefire negotiations. Follow the latest here and watch below as the Ukrainian PM and EU foreign policy chief speak to the media in Brussels.
Wednesday 9 April 2025 15:41, UK
Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal and EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas are due to speak to the media in Brussels shortly.
Marta Kos, the EU commissioner for enlargement, is also expected to speak.
You can watch the news conference live in the stream above – and we’ll bring you the key updates live here.
In our 14.14 post we referred to Russia’s ongoing efforts to seize control of Pokrovsk, a city known as “the gateway to Donetsk”.
Those attempts have met with determined resistance from Ukrainian forces.
Images from the region today show drone pilots of the First Unmanned Systems Battalion of the 59th Separate Assault Brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
They can be seen operating and evaluating drones during a repair, adjustment and test session at an undisclosed location in Dnipropetrovsk.
We are just getting a report that the members of Germany’s new coalition government have agreed to support eventual NATO membership for Ukraine.
We have yet to receive confirmation, although it was reported two weeks ago that a preliminary final version of the foreign policy section of the new German coalition agreement said: “We stand by the NATO accession perspective for Ukraine, as reaffirmed at the NATO summit in Washington.”
For context, the prospect of Ukraine joining NATO is now considered highly unlikely, with Donald Trump’s US administration effectively ruling it out and even NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte indicating it was no longer under consideration.
Among the key themes of the war in Ukraine over recent months has been Russia’s ongoing effort to seize Pokrovsk.
Control of the city, which the Russian media call “the gateway to Donetsk”, would allow Moscow to severely disrupt Ukrainian supply lines along the eastern front.
Its capture would also boost Russia’s campaign to capture the city of Chasiv Yar, which sits on higher ground offering potential control of a wider area.
However, the huge resources being deployed by Moscow in its attempts to take control of Pokrovsk offer an indication of Vladimir Putin’s intentions in Ukraine, according to analysts at leading US think tank the Institute for the Study of War.
It says Russian forces are currently pursuing three distinct tactical objectives in the Pokrovsk direction, but that Ukrainian drone operations and localised counterattacks are continuing to complicate their advances in the area.
“Russian forces have spent the last 13 months and lost over five divisions’ worth of tanks and thousands of troops attacking towards Pokrovsk and trying to seize the town,” the group said.
They said the Russian offensive operations “highlight Russian President Vladimir Putin’s determination to seize all of Ukraine through military means at whatever cost if he cannot do so through negotiations”.
“Future Russian attacks on and into Pokrovsk… would only generate greater manpower and materiel losses if the Russian military is even capable of conducting such operations after having suffered significant armoured vehicle and personnel losses over the last three years of fighting,” the analysts added.
ISW said Russian commanders were likely willing to undertake these long-term operations “because they are operating under the assumption or with direct knowledge that Putin does not intend to end the war in Ukraine in the near future”.
“Putin has previously articulated a theory of victory that assumes that the Russian military will be able to continue gradual, creeping advances in Ukraine indefinitely and has repeatedly indicated that he has no interest in a resolution of the war on any terms but those he dictates,” they continued.
“The US Office of the Director of National Intelligence’s (ODNI) 2025 Annual Threat Assessment assessed in March 2025 that Putin remains committed to pursuing Ukrainian surrender through both diplomatic and military means.
“ISW continues to assess that Putin has no interest in ending the war and intends to continue fighting until he accomplishes his objectives in Ukraine, which are the toppling of the current Ukrainian government and the categorical destruction of the Ukrainian military.”
Poland has announced plans to invest more than £600m in ammunition production.
The announcement by Polish deputy defence minister Cezary Tomczyk comes after officials in the country said Poland has ammunition reserves for one to two weeks of war.
“Over the next few years, we want to invest more than three billion zlotys (around £600m) in an ammunition factory in Poland,” Tomczyk said.
Poland borders Ukraine and spends a bigger proportion of its GDP on defence than any other nation in Europe.
We return now to the story surrounding the Chinese citizens that Ukraine says it has captured fighting alongside Russian forces.
Kyiv has indicated it has evidence of significant numbers of Chinese citizens that are taking part in the conflict on behalf of Moscow, prompting speculation that Beijing may be involved in secretely providing troops to help Russia.
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) thinktank, however, suggested this may not be the case.
It said it had observed reports of “various unspecified Russian entities recruiting vulnerable migrant workers into the Russian military to fight in Ukraine both in Russia and abroad”.
“Indian authorities revealed in 2024 that unspecified Russian entities were managing a human trafficking network that lured Indian citizens to Russia under false pretences and then coerced them into signing military contracts with the Russian Ministry of Defence to fight in Ukraine,” ISW analysts said.
Indian and Russian authorities partnered to repatriate Indian citizens who had involuntarily joined the Russian military in October 2024, and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) could demonstrate that its government was not involved in the participation of its citizens in this war by undertaking a similar effort in the future.
Security and defence analyst Michael Clarke is back for his weekly Q&A.
He’ll be answering your questions on the Ukraine war, covering anything from the battlefield to peace talks – you decide.
There’s still time to submit yours in the box at the top of the page and he’ll get through as many as he can.
Make sure to check our Q&A blog for his answers or to watch live as he talks through his thoughts with presenter Kamali Melbourne from 1pm.
A few more lines to bring you from the Kremlin now.
We reported earlier this morning (see 9.20am post) on the claims of Russian foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova.
Zakharova took aim at NATO, claiming its members were increasing defence spending in preparation for a possible conflict with Russia.
Zakharova said: “The alliance still believes that our country is a long-term threat and will remain so even after the end of the Ukrainian conflict.
“The North Atlantic Alliance is openly throwing oil onto the fire of the conflict.”
For context:
Many NATO countries have been upping defence spending recently.
The invasion of Ukraine by Russia marked the first major war on the continent in decades, spooking governments used to peacetime.
Despite claims from Moscow, the invasion was initiated by the Kremlin.
The fighting, combined with a determination from Donald Trump’s White House that Europe should shoulder more of the defensive burden in the West, has led to budgets growing.
Russia’s defence ministry has said its forces hit a Ukrainian missile producing facility, according to the Russian Interfax news agency.
“Operational-tactical aviation, strike unmanned aerial vehicles, missile troops and artillery of the Russian Armed Forces groups have damaged an enterprise producing operational-tactical missiles, workshops producing strike unmanned aerial vehicles and their storage sites, as well as concentrations of manpower, equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces and foreign mercenaries in 149 districts,” the ministry stated.
The claim has not been independently verified.
We reported earlier on quotes from Ukraine’s Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi.
We now have a bit more to bring you from him.
In an interview with Ukrainian outlet LB.UA, Syrskyi said that a Russian offensive in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions had already begun.
He also detailed how aggressively Russia was increasing its manpower – something Ukraine has struggled with in the past.
“Since the beginning of the aggression, the enemy has increased its group fivefold. Every month they increase it by eight to nine thousand, in a year it turns out 120,000-130,000. As of January 1, 2025, there were 603,000 military personnel in Russia. Today there are already 623,000,” he told the outlet.
Volodymyr Zelenskyy has previously warned that Russia was amassing forces in preparation for such an attack.
“I can say that the president is absolutely right, and this offensive has actually already begun,” Syrskyi added.
By seizing more territory, Russia could be looking to give itself a stronger hand in any US-led negotiations.
After making significant advances in the east, Russia’s gains have slowed in recent months.
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Ukraine war latest: Russian offensives in key areas reveal Putin's plan for Ukraine, analysts say – Sky News
