Ukraine war situation update: 28 June – 4 July 2025 – ACLED

Posted: 16 July 2025| Region: Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia | Category: Ukraine Update
Authors: Olha Polishchuk; Cristian Vlas
3% decrease compared to last week
21% increase compared to last week
39% decrease compared to last week
Overnight on 3 and 4 July, Russian forces launched 539 drones, including decoy drones, and 11 missiles at Ukraine, breaking another record in the number of drones launched during a single coordinated attack since the start of the full-scale invasion.¹Victoria Butenko, et al., “Russia launches record number of drones at Ukraine after latest Trump-Putin phone call,” CNN, 4 July 2025 Ukrainian forces intercepted 478 of the projectiles.²Anett Abramova, “Russia launched over 500 UAVs and a dozen missiles into Ukraine. The Air Force spoke about another massive attack,” Hromadske, 4 July 2025 (Ukrainian) The attack came shortly after yet another call between United States President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin.³Paul Sonne and Tyler Pager, “Trump Says Call With Putin Yields No Progress on Ukraine Cease-Fire,” The New York Times, 3 July 2025 It mainly focused on the capital city of Kyiv, where it lasted around 13 hours,⁴Vitalii Chervonenko and Mariana Matviichuk, “Massive Russian strike on Kyiv: three people killed, dozens injured,” BBC, 4 July 2025 (Ukrainian) killing three civilians and wounding over 30 others. The attack damaged infrastructure in at least five of Kyiv’s 10 boroughs, including apartment buildings, railway infrastructure, schools, a medical facility, and the Embassy of Poland in Kyiv’s historical city center. 
The attack came only several days after the previous record-breaking wave of Russian drones and missiles. On 29 June, Russia launched 477 drones and 60 missiles at Ukraine, 475 of which were intercepted.⁵Nataliia Yurchenko, “Russians fired a record 537 targets at Ukraine: how many missiles and drones did air defense shoot down,” RBC-Ukraine, 29 June 2025 (Ukrainian) The attack and fallen debris struck over a dozen locations across the central and western regions of Ukraine, injuring civilians and damaging residential buildings, educational facilities, a hospital, and other civilian infrastructure. The number of drones Russia has launched against Ukraine has been on the rise this year. Russia launched over 5,000 drones in June — twice that of the highest recorded number in 2023.⁶Yuliia Taradiuk, “Smashing previous monthly record, Russia launches 5,337 kamikaze drones against Ukraine during June,” The Kyiv Independent, 30 June 2025
Explore the ACLED Conflict Exposure tool to assess the numbers of people affected by armed violence, disaggregated by locations, time period, and actors involved.
Olha Polishchuk is the Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia Research Manager at ACLED and has been with the organization since September 2018, originally hired as the Ukraine Researcher. Currently, she manages a team of researchers covering countries across Eastern Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia and oversees the dataset and analysis work for the region. Olha holds an LLM in Law of the Sea from the Arctic University of Norway, an LLM in Human Rights Law with International Law from the University of Kent, and a bachelor’s degree from the Taras Shevchenko National University of Kyiv. She has experience working in the private law sector, with Ukrainian government institutions, and human rights NGOs.
Cristian Vlas is the Assistant Research Manager at the Eastern Europe desk. His previous focus was political violence in Belarus, Hungary, Moldova, and Romania. His work experience includes four years of reporting on Moldova and the Transnistrian conflict settlement for Moldova.org, monitoring of the use of small arms and light weapons in Moldova at SEESAC’s Armed Violence Monitoring Platform. He also worked on reporting and advocacy with the Romanian National Council of Refugees (CNRR). Cristian has a Master’s degree in International Relations from the Corvinus University of Budapest, Hungary, and earned his Bachelor’s degree in International Relations and European Integration from the University of Pécs, Hungary.
Regions: Europe, Caucasus, and Central Asia
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