The US Dollar Index (DXY), which tracks the performance of the US Dollar (USD) against a basket of six major currencies, is losing ground after registering gains in the previous three successive sessions, trading near 100.10 at the time of writing. Market sentiment remains cautious ahead of the upcoming Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, as investors look for insight into how tariffs may be impacting employment trends.
On the daily chart, technical analysis indicates a potential bullish reversal, as the index breaks out above a descending channel pattern. Furthermore, the DXY has moved above the nine-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), signaling strengthening short-term momentum.
However, the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is remaining below the 50 mark, suggesting a bearish bias is still in play. A decisive break above the 50 mark could confirm the emergence of the bullish bias.
On the downside, immediate support is seen at the nine-day EMA of 99.71, aligned with the upper boundary of the descending channel. A successful return to the channel could revive the bearish bias and put the downward pressure on the DXY to navigate the region around 97.91 — the lowest level since March 2022, which was recorded on April 21. A break below this level could reinforce the bearish bias and put downward pressure on the US Dollar Index to approach the lower boundary of the descending channel around the 93.50 level.
To the upside, the US Dollar Index may target the 50-day EMA at the 102.34 level. A break above this level could improve the medium-term price momentum and support the index to explore the area around the two-month high at 104.37, reached on April 1.
The table below shows the percentage change of US Dollar (USD) against listed major currencies today. US Dollar was the weakest against the New Zealand Dollar.
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the US Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the Japanese Yen, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent USD (base)/JPY (quote).
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The EUR/USD pair attracts some buyers during the Asian session on Friday and looks to build on the intraday move up beyond the 1.1300 round-figure mark. Spot prices, for now, seem to have snapped a three-day losing streak to over a two-week low, around the 1.1265 zone touched on Thursday.
GBP/USD drifts lower to near 1.3275 during the Asian trading hours on Friday. The positive developments surrounding US-China trade talks provide some support to the US Dollar. Investors will closely monitor the US April employment report later on Friday, including the Nonfarm Payrolls, the Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings.
Gold price gains positive traction and moves away from a two-week low set on Thursday. Subdued USD price action lends support to the XAU/USD pair ahead of the US NFP report. The optimism over possible US-China trade negotiations might cap the precious metal.
Bitcoin price is extending its gains, trading above $97,000 on Friday after breaking above the key resistance level of $95,000 the previous day. Ethereum approaches a key level of resistance, while Ripple finds support around a significant level.
We expect the FOMC will leave its target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at 4.25-4.50% at its upcoming meeting on May 6-7, a view widely shared by financial markets and economists. Market pricing currently implies only a 9% probability of the FOMC cutting the fed funds rate by 25 bps.
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