As Australia navigates a crucial electoral campaign, an article published by Janes triggered a wave of concern in Canberra. The report alleged that Russia had formally requested permission from Indonesia to deploy long-range military aircraft at Manuhua Air Force Base, located on Biak Island in Indonesia’s Papua province. Just 1,400 kilometers from Darwin, this airbase could provide Russia with a strategic platform in the Western Pacific, drastically altering the military landscape of the Indo-Pacific region. Despite official denials from Indonesian authorities, the very possibility of such an agreement has raised serious concerns among regional powers, particularly Australia and the United States.
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In 2017, two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers landed at Manuhua during a South Pacific patrol, triggering a temporary alert at the Royal Australian Air Force base in Darwin (Picture source: Alexander Shukhov)
According to Janes, the proposal was reportedly made in February 2025 by Sergei Shoigu, then Secretary of the Russian Security Council, during a meeting with Indonesian Defense Minister Sjafrie Sjamsoeddin. Indonesian sources cited by Janes confirmed the request had been received, although its official status remains ambiguous. Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles later stated that his Indonesian counterpart assured him the reports were “simply not true.” Still, experts suggest the idea might have been discussed informally at lower levels of government, leaving room for plausible deniability. The Kremlin, for its part, declined to confirm or deny the report, citing the prevalence of "fake news."
Russia's interest in Biak is not new. In 2017, two Russian Tu-95 strategic bombers landed at Manuhua during a South Pacific patrol, triggering a temporary alert at the Royal Australian Air Force base in Darwin. Since then, Russia's Aerospace Forces (VKS) have made several requests to land Tu-95s and Il-76 airlifters at the same base. These aircraft, including the Tu-95MS and possibly the supersonic Tu-160 Blackjack, are capable of long-range missions and can carry Kh-101/Kh-102 cruise missiles with conventional or nuclear warheads, enabling Russia to project power across vast distances.
If Russia were to establish a permanent presence at Manuhua, it would mark a significant geopolitical shift in the Indo-Pacific. From this location, Russian bombers could conduct ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) missions over Northern Australia, including Darwin and the nearby Tindal Air Base, currently being upgraded to host US B-52 bombers. It would also place US military assets in Guam and allied installations across the South Pacific within potential reach. This would allow Russia to collect sensitive data on regional force deployments, logistics hubs, and naval operations, particularly those involving the US Marine Rotational Force – Darwin.
Operationally, Russian strategic bombers based in Biak could monitor and threaten a wide arc of territory encompassing northern and eastern Australia, parts of Southeast Asia, the South China Sea, and key maritime chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca. This would complicate defense planning for both Canberra and Washington, particularly in scenarios involving deterrence, crisis response, or open conflict in the Pacific.
The implications extend far beyond Australia. A Russian military footprint in Papua would significantly enhance Moscow’s ability to project power into an area of increasing strategic importance, where US, Chinese, and allied forces are already expanding their presence. It would also give Moscow a stronger position in maritime Asia, closer to global trade routes and vital sea lanes that pass through the region. From Biak, Russian forces could potentially support broader geopolitical aims, including coordination with Chinese military activities. Notably, Russia and China have stepped up joint bomber patrols over the Pacific in recent years, and a forward-operating location in Indonesia could reinforce that axis.
From this location, Russian bombers could conduct ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) missions over Northern Australia, including Darwin and the nearby Tindal Air Base, currently being upgraded to host US B-52 bombers (Picture source: Google Earth)
Strategically, this development would place considerable strain on the US-Australia alliance and the broader regional security architecture. Washington has invested heavily in reinforcing its presence in the Indo-Pacific, including under the AUKUS partnership with Australia and the United Kingdom. This includes the construction of new naval and air facilities, frequent joint exercises, and forward deployment of key assets such as submarines and long-range bombers. A Russian base near Australia would not only pose an intelligence and missile threat but also serve as a political statement, signaling that Moscow can project power far beyond its immediate periphery, despite its ongoing military campaign in Ukraine.
For Indonesia, however, the calculus is far more complex. Officially, Jakarta adheres to a long-standing “free and active” foreign policy that opposes alignment with any major power bloc. The Indonesian constitution explicitly prohibits the establishment of foreign military bases on its territory. In 2020, Jakarta rejected a US proposal to use its airfields for P-8 Poseidon maritime surveillance aircraft, underscoring its resistance to any permanent foreign military footprint. Indonesian lawmakers, including retired Major General TB Hasanuddin, have reiterated this position in recent days, warning that any agreement with Moscow would violate national law and compromise the country’s neutrality.
That said, Indonesia’s relationship with Russia has evolved. Following the election of President Prabowo Subianto, bilateral defense cooperation has expanded. In November 2024, the two nations held their first bilateral naval drills off the coast of Java—a symbolic gesture of growing ties. Russia has also sought to export arms to Indonesia, including Su-35 fighter jets, although a 2018 deal was canceled under US sanctions pressure. More recently, Indonesia joined the expanded BRICS group, further signaling its openness to deepening ties with non-Western powers.
Even so, the idea of hosting Russian long-range bombers on Indonesian soil appears politically risky and strategically contentious. It would alienate regional partners such as Australia and Singapore, heighten tensions with the United States, and potentially expose Indonesia to retaliatory diplomatic or economic measures. Most importantly, it could undermine Indonesia’s reputation as a neutral actor in a region increasingly shaped by great power rivalry.
Even if Indonesia ultimately rejects the Russian request, as officials claim—Moscow is actively exploring new avenues to extend its reach into the Indo-Pacific. The episode highlights the fragile balance of power in the region and the competing strategic interests at play. For Australia and the United States, the possibility of a Russian air base in Indonesia serves as a stark reminder that the Indo-Pacific is no longer a peripheral theater, but rather a central arena in the unfolding contest for global influence.
Why a Russian Military Base in Indonesia Could Shift the Indo-Pacific Balance Against the US and Australia – Army Recognition
